Stellar (XLM) is showing signs of building toward a significant price move, with analysts pointing to a classic technical pattern that could result in a 15% swing in either direction. As the broader crypto market steadies and momentum returns to altcoins, XLM is once again in the spotlight — and its next move could come sooner than expected.

Triangle Formation Points to Volatility Ahead

According to crypto analyst Ali, XLM is currently forming a symmetrical triangle pattern on the one-hour chart — a setup known for generating powerful breakout moves once price action escapes its tightening range. This pattern, commonly seen during periods of market indecision, represents a battle between buyers and sellers, with pressure mounting toward a pivotal moment of resolution.

In a recent post, Ali noted, “Stellar is forming a triangle pattern that could result in a 15% price move.” Such patterns are often the calm before the storm, signaling the potential for a sharp move either upward or downward depending on how the market responds.

XLM Price Action: Steady Recovery from April Lows

As of the latest trading data, Stellar is up 4.33% in the past 24 hours, trading at $0.248. This bounce marks a notable recovery from a low of $0.20 reached on April 7. Since then, XLM has been gradually climbing, hitting an intraday high of $0.252 during early Sunday trading on April 13.

Despite the recent gains, XLM’s price remains below key resistance levels — namely the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, currently sitting at $0.273 and $0.291. A clean break above these levels would likely confirm a bullish breakout from the triangle and could set the stage for a push toward the $0.375 mark, representing a strong rebound from recent lows.

Downside Risk Still in Play

However, the technical setup also comes with significant downside risk. If XLM fails to maintain support at current levels and breaks below the lower boundary of the triangle, it could retrace back to $0.20 — effectively erasing the recovery seen over the past week.

Much of this directional outcome will depend on how broader market sentiment unfolds over the next few sessions. With Bitcoin and Ethereum both exhibiting volatility, altcoins like Stellar are highly sensitive to overall crypto market pressure.

Key Levels to Watch

For traders and investors keeping a close eye on XLM, several levels will be crucial over the coming days:

• Immediate resistance: $0.252 (current intraday high)

• Short-term breakout point: $0.273 (50-day moving average)

• Major resistance target: $0.291 (200-day moving average)

• Bullish target if breakout confirmed: $0.375

• Critical support level: $0.20

A confirmed breakout above $0.273, especially on strong volume, would likely trigger additional bullish momentum, whereas a breakdown below $0.24 could shift momentum in favor of the bears.

Fundamental Tailwinds: Growth and Infrastructure

While price action is often dominated by short-term technicals, Stellar also has a few long-term catalysts working in its favor. According to a recent Nansen report, the second half of 2024 was marked by consolidation for the Stellar blockchain. Despite market volatility affecting many networks, Stellar maintained a consistent 1.5 million to 2 million daily transactions from July to November 2024.

Further bolstering confidence in the protocol, Protocol 22 officially went live on December 5, 2024, introducing critical upgrades for smart contract development. These include new constructors for Soroban smart contracts and integration of BLS12-381 cryptographic functions, both of which enhance the network’s capabilities in supporting secure and scalable decentralized applications (dApps).

Moreover, growing involvement from centralized exchanges and DeFi platforms indicates that Stellar’s ecosystem is maturing, potentially paving the way for broader adoption of cross-chain solutions and blockchain-based financial tools in 2025.

Outlook: A Decisive Moment for Stellar

Stellar’s near-term fate hangs in the balance as the triangle pattern continues to tighten. Whether XLM breaks out to the upside or down depends largely on how bulls and bears respond to key resistance and support levels in the coming days.

With a potential 15% move on the horizon, traders would be wise to monitor price action closely — especially around the $0.273 and $0.291 marks — which could serve as the springboard for a breakout or a signal of renewed selling pressure.

Conclusion: Triangle Pattern Could Set the Tone for XLM’s Next Big Move

Stellar (XLM) is poised for a decisive move following a period of tight consolidation. The symmetrical triangle forming on its hourly chart could soon give way to a breakout or breakdown, with a 15% price swing expected either way. While the upside potential is attractive, risk remains elevated, particularly if XLM fails to reclaim key technical levels.

As always, traders are encouraged to use caution, employ proper risk management strategies, and stay informed with up-to-date technical and fundamental analysis. In a market where things change fast, being prepared for both directions is key.