Toncoin (TON) has experienced a significant downturn in recent weeks, leading to widespread losses for holders. With 96% of Toncoin holders currently in the red, many are wondering whether a recovery is possible, especially as whales continue to hold onto their positions despite the market’s bearish sentiment. Could the large holders fuel a reversal in price, or are the downward trends set to continue?

Toncoin’s Price Struggles: A 22% Decline Over the Last 30 Days

Toncoin’s price has been on a strong downward trajectory since reaching $5.6 nearly two months ago. As of now, TON is trading at $2.9, marking a 2.25% decline in the last 24 hours. The altcoin has also seen notable drops on weekly and monthly charts, down by 11.68% and 22.53%, respectively.

This steady price decline has left Toncoin holders in a tough spot, with most seeing their investments go deep into the red. According to data from IntoTheBlock, only 3% of holders are currently in profit, while a staggering 96% are sitting at a loss. The remaining 1% of holders are at break-even.

With such a high percentage of holders at a loss, there is a risk that many might opt to sell their positions to avoid further losses, potentially driving the price down even further. However, despite these widespread losses, a group of investors appears to be holding strong—Toncoin’s whales.

Whales Remain Bullish: Large Holders Continue to Accumulate

It’s common for smaller investors to panic sell when faced with sustained losses, but Toncoin’s whales—those who hold a significant portion of the asset—are taking a different approach. Instead of selling, large holders are continuing to accumulate, indicating that they see the dip as a buying opportunity.

Data from Santiment and IntoTheBlock shows that the supply of TON held by whales has actually risen in the past day, increasing from 426.3k to 603.37k. This suggests that whales are not only holding onto their assets but are also actively buying more. Whales currently control 91% of the total supply of Toncoin, which is a significant portion.

This behavior is further confirmed by the Large Holders Netflow to Exchange Netflow Ratio, which shows a drop from 1023% to -759.48%. This shift indicates that fewer large holders are transferring their TON to exchanges, signaling accumulation rather than selling.

Is This Accumulation a Sign of a Future Rally?

Despite the strong accumulation by whales, Toncoin’s price continues to face significant selling pressure from smaller holders. AMBCrypto notes that while whales are not selling, the broader market is still dealing with substantial selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Toncoin recently dropped to 27, signaling an oversold condition. This suggests that the market is currently dominated by sellers, with buying interest not yet enough to overcome the downward pressure.

Toncoin’s Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has also turned negative, confirming the selling pressure in the market. In fact, the market’s outlook appears bearish, with the potential for Toncoin to test further downside levels if the selling continues.

What’s Next for Toncoin? Potential for a Rebound or Further Decline

At this stage, Toncoin is at a crossroads, with two possible outcomes depending on how market participants respond to the current conditions.

1. Possible Reversal: With Toncoin in an oversold state, the sellers may soon become exhausted, creating a potential buying opportunity. If enough buyers step in, Toncoin could see a short-term bounce, potentially reclaiming the $3.2 level. The fact that whales are still holding strong could lend some support to this bullish scenario, as their accumulation may indicate confidence in a future recovery.

2. Further Decline: If selling pressure continues to dominate, Toncoin could experience another leg down. The next key support level is at $2.8, and if this level fails to hold, further declines could be in store for Toncoin before any potential trend reversal.

Conclusion: A Whale-Led Recovery or Continued Struggles?

The current situation for Toncoin is complex. While the vast majority of holders are at a loss, the behavior of large holders (whales) remains a key factor. Their continued accumulation of TON signals that they may be betting on a recovery down the line, despite the broader market’s negative sentiment.

However, for a recovery to materialize, broader market conditions will need to shift, and Toncoin’s smaller holders will need to regain confidence. Until then, Toncoin remains caught between significant selling pressure and the potential for a whale-led rebound.

For investors watching Toncoin, the key will be monitoring whether the whales’ accumulation leads to a reversal in market sentiment or if further declines are on the horizon. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether Toncoin can reclaim some of its lost value or face further downward pressure.