Ripple’s XRP has shown remarkable stability in 2025 despite mixed second-quarter performance. After gaining over 300% in 2024, the token has spent most of Q2 trapped in a narrow range between $2.0 and $2.6. While the market awaits clarity on Ripple’s legal status and ETF developments, key signals point to growing accumulation—and the potential for a bullish breakout if the right catalyst emerges.

Throughout the first half of 2025, XRP’s price action has been muted. The daily chart shows that the token has failed to regain the highs near $3.4 reached in 2024. Volume trends confirm this stalling momentum, with On Balance Volume (OBV) remaining flat during the period. Since dipping below $2.6 in May, XRP has struggled to find upward momentum, consolidating below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a key technical indicator for trend direction.

Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, XRP has encountered strong resistance at the $2.3 level. This price point acted as a major supply zone in June, rejecting several bullish attempts. A brief 7% price rally on June 30 was also turned back at $2.3, highlighting persistent sell pressure. Analysts now view $2.3 as the immediate hurdle that needs to be cleared before a move toward $2.6 can occur.

While the price structure looks range-bound, underlying accumulation activity suggests growing optimism among long-term holders. According to Glassnode, more than 1 billion XRP tokens have been withdrawn from centralized exchanges since October 2024. Exchange balances fell from 4.4 billion to 3.3 billion XRP in that period—a 25% reduction in liquid supply.

Such large-scale accumulation may not trigger a breakout on its own, but it does set the foundation for one. With less XRP available on exchanges, the potential for a supply shock increases if demand picks up. This could happen if a major catalyst—such as a favorable SEC ruling or progress on a spot XRP ETF—enters the picture in Q3.

Until then, the price is likely to remain range-bound. Analysts expect XRP to oscillate between $2.0 and $2.3 in the short term, with the possibility of extending to $2.6 in the medium term if bullish momentum builds. If the current resistance at $2.3 is broken, $2.6 would be the next logical target—both technically and psychologically.

Market structure also supports the idea of a limited downside. The Liquidation Heatmap from CoinGlass reveals significant liquidity zones at $2.0 and $2.1. These levels could act as short-term price magnets during pullbacks, especially with leveraged traders exposed in these zones. In fact, if the price dips to these levels, it may present buying opportunities for traders anticipating a rebound within the current range.

Despite the lack of a breakout so far, the broader trend for XRP remains constructive. The combination of reduced exchange supply, long-term accumulation, and a relatively neutral sentiment suggests that the token is consolidating rather than weakening. Should a bullish catalyst emerge—such as final clarity from the SEC lawsuit or positive regulatory signals—XRP could move swiftly above $2.6 and toward retesting its 2024 highs.

In summary, XRP remains locked in a well-defined range but is showing clear signs of long-term holder confidence. Over 1 billion tokens moved off exchanges since October 2024 points to significant accumulation beneath the surface. While resistance at $2.3 remains firm, the setup is building for a potential breakout. In the absence of negative shocks, the third quarter could be pivotal for XRP—especially if fundamental news aligns with the current technical structure.