The XRP Ledger (XRPL) is making notable strides in the rapidly expanding real-world asset (RWA) market, signaling a potential shift in the blockchain landscape. Once regarded primarily as a payments network, XRPL is now positioning itself as a serious contender in the tokenization space, traditionally dominated by Ethereum. With over $157 million in tokenized RWAs and growing institutional attention, XRPL’s momentum appears strong. However, questions remain about whether this growth can be sustained long-term, particularly amid speculation surrounding an XRP-based exchange-traded fund (ETF) and conflicting on-chain data.

According to RWA.xyz’s League Table, XRPL now ranks 10th in total RWA value across blockchains, with $157.4 million in assets and an impressive 34.60% growth over the past 30 days. This growth rate places XRPL as the third-fastest growing network in the RWA segment, outpacing larger and more established platforms, including Ethereum. While XRPL currently supports only six RWA issuers, the data indicates a steady and diversified distribution of tokenized assets such as MGL, AAULF, and OUSG, suggesting the foundation for broader asset variety is already being laid.

Institutional adoption is further reinforcing XRPL’s standing. One notable development is Mercado Bitcoin’s commitment to tokenize over $200 million in real-world assets on the XRP Ledger. As one of Latin America’s largest blockchain tokenization efforts, this partnership underscores the growing confidence in XRPL’s technical infrastructure to manage regulated financial products. The move hints at the Ledger’s suitability for permissioned environments, opening doors for global financial institutions to adopt XRPL in their tokenization strategies.

Supporting this institutional interest is an uptick in developer activity on the network. Data from Santiment shows a clear rise in XRP development contributions in late June, coinciding with renewed price interest and the statement of major RWA partnerships. This suggests that not only are large players testing the platform, but developer ecosystems are also gaining traction — a critical metric for long-term viability.

The narrative is also fueled by speculation surrounding a potential Ripple ETF. Betting market Polymarket currently reflects an 88% chance of an XRP ETF being approved by the end of 2025. Though down slightly from earlier highs, this probability reflects a strong undercurrent of investor optimism. If realized, such a development would validate Ripple’s efforts to bridge traditional finance and blockchain, possibly triggering wider institutional participation and further driving up demand for XRPL-based assets.

However, while sentiment is broadly positive, on-chain data paints a more nuanced picture. CryptoQuant’s network value to transaction (NVT) ratio for XRP reveals periods of overvaluation. Spikes in the NVT ratio — often interpreted as a sign that market cap is growing faster than network usage — raise concerns about whether XRP’s current valuation reflects its real-world utility. Currently, XRP is trading around $2.20, and while price action has remained relatively stable, the high NVT could suggest speculative interest is temporarily outweighing fundamental usage.

This divergence between price sentiment and transaction volume could be a potential risk if the underlying network activity does not eventually catch up. ETF speculation and institutional buzz can certainly propel short-term gains, but in the absence of consistent on-chain growth, these gains may be unsustainable.

Nevertheless, the XRP Ledger’s rapid RWA expansion, growing developer base, and institutional adoption efforts are laying the groundwork for a meaningful role in the future of asset tokenization. As the tokenization market continues to evolve — with estimates predicting trillions of dollars worth of assets moving on-chain in the next decade — XRPL’s low fees, scalable architecture, and emerging regulatory partnerships could make it a preferred platform, especially in regulated environments.

In conclusion, while XRPL’s rise in the RWA space is promising, and the excitement around a potential ETF is fueling short-term momentum, the network must demonstrate sustained on-chain utility and broader adoption to maintain its position. The foundation appears strong, but whether XRPL can maintain and grow its market share in a competitive and fast-changing ecosystem will depend on how effectively it translates speculation and institutional interest into real, long-term network activity.