XRP, the cryptocurrency developed by Ripple Labs, has been on an impressive recovery path to start 2025, crossing the $2.4 mark and hitting $2.45 amid an 11% weekly gain. Despite this positive momentum, market analysts are cautious and warn that XRP’s price movements are not yet conclusive. According to EGRAG Crypto, a prominent crypto analyst, XRP’s price action remains “noise” until it decisively breaks through key levels that will indicate its next major move.

Breaking Through the $2 and $2.6 Levels

EGRAG Crypto highlights the importance of two critical price points: $2 and $2.6. The $2 level is crucial as a support base, while $2.6 acts as a significant resistance level. XRP has been oscillating between these two levels, forming a symmetrical triangle pattern on its price chart. This narrowing range indicates that the price is consolidating, preparing for a potential breakout or breakdown.

The $2.6 resistance level is particularly important. As the analyst pointed out, this price range has acted as a strong resistance zone in the past, with similar price action observed earlier in 2024 around $0.60, $0.65, and $0.75. The price was unable to make a decisive move until it broke past these levels. Similarly, if XRP can break above the $2.6 level, it could trigger a breakout toward higher price targets.

However, the situation is more complex on the downside. If XRP’s price drops below $2, the market could face bearish pressure, and further declines could follow. For now, XRP remains in a consolidation phase, trapped within this key range, and breaking either above or below these levels could set the stage for its next significant price move.

Bullish Indicators in Favor of XRP

Despite the caution around the $2 and $2.6 price levels, several indicators point to the potential for a bullish continuation in the near term. EGRAG Crypto highlighted favorable technical signals, particularly the Stochastic RSI, which is showing signs of a bullish crossover. This suggests that upward momentum could follow if the trend continues.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 3-day chart has also bounced from the 65 level, showing signs of buying pressure. EGRAG points out that if the RSI moves toward the 70-74 range, this would confirm increased bullish activity, indicating that XRP may be poised for further gains.

A Potential Repeat of 2017’s Bull Run?

Adding to the bullish sentiment, another analyst, Dom, compared XRP’s current market behavior to its performance during the 2017 bull run. Dom observed that XRP is currently consolidating around the 20-40 day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), similar to the pattern seen in 2017 after an initial price rally. Back then, this consolidation period ultimately led to a second leg up, pushing XRP’s price to its all-time high of $3.31 in January 2018.

Dom suggests that XRP’s current 30-day consolidation could set the stage for another breakout, much like what happened in 2017. If this historical pattern holds true, XRP could be gearing up for a significant price rally, especially after its recent strong weekly performance.

The Role of On-Chain Developments

Beyond technical analysis, on-chain developments also play a crucial role in influencing XRP’s price action. A notable factor is the growing speculation around the potential approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) in 2025. According to Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform, there is a 70% likelihood that XRP will secure ETF approval this year.

Several major firms, including Bitwise and WisdomTree, have already filed for XRP ETFs, signaling a growing institutional interest in the cryptocurrency. The approval of these ETFs would likely bring substantial institutional capital into XRP, potentially driving its price higher. If XRP manages to break through its key levels, the influx of institutional investment could amplify its bullish momentum, creating a perfect storm for further growth.

Conclusion: Key Levels to Watch

In conclusion, XRP’s recent price action has shown potential for a bullish breakout, but significant price movement will only occur if it can break above the key resistance at $2.6 or hold the support at $2. If XRP can decisively move past these levels, it could open the door to higher price targets, especially if the bullish technical indicators continue to align. However, if the price drops below $2, the market could face further declines.

With strong technical indicators and potential on-chain catalysts, XRP’s 2025 trajectory remains uncertain, but the groundwork for a breakout is in place. Traders and investors should monitor these key levels closely, as they will likely dictate the next phase of XRP’s price action in the coming months.