XRP has made waves in the cryptocurrency market over the past several months, surging by an astonishing 370% since the U.S. Presidential elections in November 2024. However, despite this impressive rise, a closer look at the altcoin’s price movements and on-chain data suggests that the rally may be running out of steam. Could XRP’s bullish run be nearing its end?

While XRP has captivated investors with its massive gains, recent chart patterns and key metrics point to potential concerns. As the digital asset reaches new price levels, market sentiment is showing signs of shifting, and the momentum may not be as strong as it once seemed.

A Closer Look at XRP’s Price Action

The past six months have been highly profitable for XRP holders, with the token climbing dramatically from just over $0.50 to a peak near $3. Despite the impressive gains, the daily price chart paints a more cautionary picture. The one-day chart reveals a bearish price structure that began to form in early March, when XRP slipped below the crucial $2.19 level. This marked a shift in price action, with the altcoin subsequently falling to $1.90 before attempting a rebound toward the $2.45 resistance level.

The $2.45 level, in particular, is worth noting as it represents the 50% retracement level of the previous price move from $2.99 to $1.90. Over the weekend, XRP faced rejection at this level, signaling that the bears might still be in control. Although XRP has enjoyed a substantial 370% increase since the November elections, recent price action suggests that upward momentum may have slowed, with sellers gaining the upper hand.

On-Chain Metrics Show Mixed Signals

While the price action shows signs of bearish pressure, there are some positive metrics that indicate potential continued demand for XRP. Data from the analytics firm Santiment reveals that although the total supply of XRP in profit has been declining alongside its price, the figure is still significantly higher than it was in October and November 2024. This suggests that many long-term holders are still sitting on profitable positions, even as the price consolidates.

Moreover, the number of daily active addresses for XRP surged in March, signaling increased network activity and a potential boost in investor confidence. However, the momentum has since tapered off, although it remains higher than in previous months. Transaction volumes are also trending similarly to the past few months, reflecting a more stable, though not explosive, level of activity.

Despite these positive signals, there is a more concerning on-chain metric that warrants attention: the long-term holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (LTH NUPL). This metric, which tracks the profitability of long-term holders (those who have held XRP for more than 155 days), has recently been hovering just above the 0.75 mark. When this figure is above 0.75, it indicates that a significant portion of the market capitalization—roughly 75%—is in profit, a scenario that can often point to market euphoria.

Historical Precedents Suggest Caution

The current state of the LTH NUPL is reminiscent of previous market cycles, notably the summer of 2021. During that time, the metric surged above 0.75, signaling a market top before XRP’s price began to decline. In 2017, the NUPL also spiked above 0.9 and stayed elevated for several weeks, which ultimately coincided with a significant price correction.

These historical parallels raise the question: Has XRP already reached its cycle top? If so, investors might be facing a situation where the price enters a prolonged downtrend, similar to previous bear market cycles. The long-term outlook for XRP remains uncertain, and those holding the altcoin could be wise to consider cashing out partial positions, especially if the market shows signs of sustained downward pressure.

What Does the Future Hold for XRP?

Despite the current bearish signals, XRP’s future is not entirely bleak. As with any asset, market cycles are inherently unpredictable, and there could still be potential for further growth, particularly if market conditions shift in favor of digital assets. The network’s increasing activity and the strong profit position of long-term holders suggest that there is still demand for the altcoin, even if the price has experienced a slowdown.

However, investors should remain cautious in the short term. With the LTH NUPL signaling possible market euphoria and the price action showing resistance at key levels, it’s crucial to monitor these signals closely. If XRP fails to break through the $2.45 resistance or drops below the $1.90 support level, it could trigger further selling pressure and a potential correction.

Ultimately, while XRP has been one of the standout performers in the crypto market since the elections, the question remains: is this the peak, or is there more room to run? Investors should be vigilant and prepared for potential volatility in the coming weeks, as the altcoin market continues to evolve.

Conclusion: Is the Rally Over?

In conclusion, XRP’s remarkable 370% rise since the U.S. elections has raised excitement in the crypto community, but there are growing concerns that the rally may already be over. Bearish chart structures, combined with on-chain signals such as the high LTH NUPL, suggest that the altcoin could be reaching its cycle top.

For investors, now may be the time to reassess positions and consider taking profits, especially if the market begins to show sustained downtrend signals. As always, it’s essential to approach crypto markets with caution, as the volatility and unpredictability inherent in these assets can lead to swift price corrections. Time will tell whether XRP can continue its upward trajectory or if the bears will take control of the market.