Bitcoin (BTC) Buy the fear Sell the Pump Decoupling from Stocks is Bleak Now

Bitcoin (BTC) supply and demand dynamics works like where HODLers accumulate at a discount, while buying off from panicking short-term holders.

Also, after every halving BTC goes up – hits new ATH and then after a bull cycle it crashes until next halving. This is history yet it can be repeated differently, based on the level of adoption of BTC.

The Chain Reaction: “BTC UTXO age bands show similar patterns, particularly among 1-2 hodlers vs <1 year hodlers. It seems much of the action lately has been taking place among entrants less than 2 years in the market while LT hodlers patiently wait”

Further, miners sell every spike in price which is one of the reasons for the range bound price action.

Whales are accumulating and institutions are beginning to buying. The reality is that the current price action is disconnected from on-chain data.  The hope is that one day BTC will be separated from the markets. And that day, that day! It will be too late to buy. And, Maxis continue to propagate this thought to keep the business going.

Reality is that stock market and cryptocurrency have be correlating since 2020. The correlation needs to be untangled first for cryptocurrency to be able to go high when stock market goes low. Right now, if stock market melts down crypto will follow, unless there’s a breakup in the relationship – the reality is that we need to touch base with reality on whether we are operating under the right assumption? Obviously, it’s not even a hedge against inflation like the maxis have been saying for years till now.

If stocks melt, then macro-economic conditions probably major correlating factor – is a say no for BTC highs. But then decoupling – when?  It should, but looks like it won’t, which is the exact opposite of what bitcoin was supposed to be created for: an alternative to the legacy financial system. Now it’s trading like a tech stock.  We are not at the point of divergence because the money we are waiting to enter crypto is waiting for regulations.

We can’t deny that the way certain aspects of crypto behave that the definitions and criteria for the types of crypto needs clarity.  Can Bitcoin (BTC) hit new highs if the stock market melts down? When funds and asset managers go risk off, they will still need an asset to reallocate into. With likely double digit CPI numbers staring them in the face, it might be time to re-run the calculus on Bitcoin.  Yes, it can! Though, correlated at the moment, crypto is nothing more than new technology and most of the stock market is full of dinosaur.

While analytical minds are delivering mixed opinion.  For now, it is like not a chance. If the stock market tanks, it takes crypto with it – looking very bleak right now.