Bitcoin (BTC) has recently experienced a volatile market phase, marked by a brief rally followed by a sharp decline. As the market fluctuates, analysts are predicting that Bitcoin may remain stuck within the $80,000 to $100,000 range for a few months before any significant breakout to the upside. While the market sentiment remains mixed, certain indicators suggest that Bitcoin could be entering a corrective phase, similar to previous cycles, potentially setting the stage for a bullish move in the coming months.

Corrective Phase in Bitcoin’s Price Action

Bitcoin’s recent price action suggests that it might be entering a corrective or ranging market phase. After briefly rallying by over 10%, Bitcoin quickly lost those gains, falling by 9.21% in the past 24 hours. The trading volume increased by 14.53% during this period, reflecting the growing bearish presence.

Historically, Bitcoin has entered such corrective phases before—most notably in the summers of 2023 and 2024. A corrective phase is typically characterized by price movements that remain within a defined range, without any significant breakout in either direction. In this phase, Bitcoin’s price may fluctuate within the $80,000 to $100,000 range for a couple of months before the next major move occurs.

UTXO Age Bands and Market Consolidation

Recent analysis has pointed to the Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) age bands—specifically the 1-3 month and 3-6 month bands—as a key indicator of Bitcoin’s current market behavior. These age bands track the distribution of Bitcoin within these time frames and suggest that BTC is likely to consolidate within the $80K-$100K range for the next two to three months. This aligns with patterns observed in Bitcoin’s price action during similar periods in the past.

A bullish breakout could be confirmed if the gap between these UTXO age bands closes, indicating that more bulls are entering the market. This would pave the way for a potential short-term rally toward $130,000, which could act as an initial target for Bitcoin’s next upward move.

Mixed Sentiment in the Market

While there is still bullish potential in the market, sentiment has become increasingly mixed. At the time of writing, institutional interest in Bitcoin appears to be rising, as indicated by the funding premium, which is currently above the zero threshold at 0.9. This suggests that institutional investors are continuing to buy Bitcoin, which generally supports price appreciation.

However, there are also signs of selling pressure. The adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR), which tracks whether Bitcoin holders are selling at a profit or loss, currently stands at 1.02. This suggests that some investors are taking profits, possibly in anticipation of further declines in Bitcoin’s price.

Outlook: Will Bitcoin Break Out or Range?

Given the current market dynamics, Bitcoin could continue to trade within the $80K-$100K range for a while. While the market has yet to show a decisive bullish move, the overall structure suggests that Bitcoin remains in a bullish corrective phase. This means that once the corrective period concludes, Bitcoin could experience a significant breakout to the upside.

Until that breakout occurs, the market may continue to exhibit mixed sentiment, with both buying and selling occurring in parallel. If the positive institutional buying continues and the UTXO age bands show signs of tightening, Bitcoin may be poised for a breakout toward higher targets, including the $130,000 mark.

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s price could remain relatively stable within the $80K-$100K range before the next breakout. Traders and investors will need to keep an eye on key market indicators, including UTXO age bands and institutional interest, to gauge when the market will make its next major move.