Bitcoin’s recent rally has ignited a heated debate across the crypto market, as the world’s most valuable digital asset briefly reclaimed the $85,000 mark before pulling back. The price surge of nearly 6% over the past week appeared to signal renewed momentum, but analysts remain divided on whether the rally is sustainable or merely the calm before another sharp correction. One of the most respected voices in technical trading, Peter Brandt, has raised a cautionary flag, warning that Bitcoin may be poised for a short-term drop to $76,000.

Brandt, known for his decades of experience in chart analysis, believes the current price movement is more corrective than impulsive. In his latest analysis, he pointed to a rising wedge pattern on the four-hour chart, a historically bearish setup that often leads to a price breakdown. If this pattern follows its typical trajectory, it could lead to a retracement toward the $76,000 level. According to Brandt, the structure of the recent price action lacks the conviction of a full-fledged breakout, suggesting that the market could be setting up for a deeper pullback before finding firmer ground.

Despite this warning, many in the crypto community remain bullish. Analysts at Coinbase, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges globally, have presented a very different perspective. In their most recent market commentary, Coinbase labeled the current Bitcoin price as being within a “fair value” range and even described it as a buying opportunity. Their reasoning hinges on a key on-chain signal: a shift in behavior among long-term holders (LTHs), who they say are beginning to re-enter the market after several months of consistent selling.

Since late December, when Bitcoin first soared past the $100,000 level, long-term holders had been largely net sellers, locking in profits after the historic run-up. However, recent data indicates that this trend is beginning to reverse. Coinbase analysts emphasize that while long-term accumulation doesn’t always result in immediate price increases, it is often a precursor to a more sustainable upward trend. The growing interest from this cohort—typically seen as smart, patient investors—could be a positive signal for Bitcoin’s medium-to-long-term outlook.

Adding to this optimism, market analyst Stockmoney Lizards drew attention to the similarities between the current price structure and Bitcoin’s accumulation phase seen in past cycles. He noted that the $72,000 to $74,000 range represents what he calls the “max pain” zone, a level where sellers are exhausted and buyers begin to reassert control. If Bitcoin convincingly breaks above its current trendline, according to him, the market could see a major continuation of the bull run—not just a short-lived rally, but potentially the start of another parabolic move.

Meanwhile, another prominent figure in the crypto space, Michael van de Poppe, echoed this bullish sentiment. He pointed to a strengthening signal on Bitcoin’s technical charts: a bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which often suggests that buying momentum is returning even as price dips slightly. Van de Poppe believes that if Bitcoin can hold above the $80,000 level in the near term, it could provide the foundation for a much larger upside move. This resilience at higher lows often hints at consolidation before a breakout.

Still, volatility remains a defining characteristic of the market, and short-term fluctuations are to be expected. Analysts are closely monitoring key price levels, particularly $86,000, $84,000, and $82,700. These zones have been identified by several trading platforms as significant liquidity areas—places where large clusters of stop-loss and leverage liquidation orders are concentrated. Movements around these points often trigger sharp swings as large orders are executed, acting like magnets that pull the price in one direction or another.

Ultimately, the crypto market remains at a critical juncture. On one hand, technical indicators suggest that a pullback to as low as $76,000 is still on the table, especially if the bearish wedge pattern holds. On the other hand, the renewed interest from long-term holders and strong underlying fundamentals paint a more optimistic picture, hinting at the potential for a new leg higher if the right conditions align.

Whether Bitcoin’s next move is a painful correction for its next rally, one thing is certain: the stakes are high, and investor sentiment is split. Traders and investors alike will be watching closely in the days ahead, as Bitcoin continues to test the boundaries of support and resistance while searching for its next major direction.