Despite Bitcoin’s recent attempt to hold above $84,000, investor sentiment across the crypto market remains deeply cautious. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, a popular tool that gauges overall market mood, currently sits at 31—firmly within the “fear” zone. For many traders, this reading is raising red flags about Bitcoin’s short-term future. But some long-term charts, like the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, are offering a far more optimistic perspective.

At press time on April 14, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $84.5K, but analysts expect volatility to increase in the coming sessions. According to technical analysts, the broader market trend still appears bearish, with resistance looming overhead and no clear confirmation of a new uptrend. Market uncertainty is being further amplified by macroeconomic conditions, particularly in the bond and equity markets. As The Kobeissi Letter recently noted, ongoing instability in the bond market could trickle into the stock market and, by extension, into crypto.

This unease is clearly reflected in sentiment data. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which aggregates multiple indicators including volatility, trading volume, social media activity, Google search trends, and Bitcoin dominance, has shown a consistent downtrend in sentiment since February. Although Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $82.5K support level earlier this month, it has since recovered—but this hasn’t been enough to shift investor mood into neutral or bullish territory.

While short-term indicators remain bearish, some long-term charts suggest that Bitcoin could still be on track for an explosive rally later this year or next. The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, created by Blockchain Center, is one such tool. Though often considered more playful than predictive, the chart has accurately identified key market cycles in the past. As of now, it shows that Bitcoin is still in what it labels the “still cheap” zone—a historical sweet spot for long-term investors looking to enter the market during periods of undervaluation.

According to the Rainbow Chart’s projections, if Bitcoin follows a pattern similar to past bull markets, the next cycle top could land in the $200,000 to $250,000 range by late 2025. While this may sound ambitious, it’s not outside the realm of possibility given Bitcoin’s track record of exponential growth following long accumulation phases. However, analysts caution that the Rainbow Chart should not be relied on in isolation. Its simplicity and visual appeal make it a helpful reference, but it lacks the nuance needed for short-term trading decisions.

Technical analysis of the 1-day BTC/USDT chart supports a more conservative view. Over the past month, Bitcoin has struggled to break above a downward trendline, signaling that the bearish structure remains intact. While the Money Flow Index (MFI) has edged slightly above the neutral 50 mark—hinting at mild bullish pressure—the Directional Movement Index (DMI) paints a different picture. The Average Directional Index (ADX), a key component of the DMI, remains below 20, indicating that no strong trend is currently in play.

Given these mixed signals, traders are treading carefully. Many are opting to stay on the sidelines or adopt short-term bearish positions until clearer direction emerges. Nevertheless, there are signs that volatility could return in a big way. One area of focus for traders is the liquidation build-up near $89.5K. This level could act as a magnet for short-term price action, especially in a market where leveraged positions are widespread. If price begins to climb, these liquidation zones could fuel a rapid move upward as shorts are forced to close.

In the meantime, investors should manage expectations. Despite the optimism from long-term models, the current landscape is dominated by caution. The disconnect between the Rainbow Chart’s bullish long-term outlook and the Fear and Greed Index’s bearish short-term reading illustrates the complexity of today’s market. Both tools offer value—but only when considered in the appropriate context.

Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim and hold key levels such as $87K and eventually $89.5K will be critical in determining whether the next move is a bullish breakout or a failed rally. Until then, short-term traders are advised to remain vigilant, and long-term investors may see this period as a continued opportunity to accumulate—if they’re willing to stomach the uncertainty.