In the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrency, the impending Bitcoin halving scheduled for April 24, as indicated by CoinMarketCap, has stirred a whirlwind of discussions regarding miner profitability and the possibility of global migration of mining operations. The anticipated reduction in block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC has raised concerns about the viability of high-cost public miners in the United States and their potential relocation overseas.

Jaran Mellerud, the founder and chief mining strategist of Hashlabs Mining, foresees a possible “mining stock bloodbath” if the Bitcoin price fails to surge significantly post-halving, indicating that some mining companies may struggle to remain profitable. Mellerud emphasizes the importance of monitoring the three to four-month period following the halving to assess its impact on miner profitability amid the reduced block rewards.

Historical data suggests that previous halving events have been followed by substantial increases in the Bitcoin price. For instance, following the May 11, 2020 halving, Bitcoin witnessed a remarkable 430% surge within five months, soaring from $8,750 to $61,300 by mid-March 2021. However, the current uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s price trajectory post-halving has led to apprehension among investors and miners alike.

One of the major concerns revolves around the profitability threshold for Bitcoin miners, especially those operating in the United States. Cantor Fitzgerald’s report in late January highlighted that several publicly listed Bitcoin miners would face challenges in remaining profitable if Bitcoin’s price hovered around $40,000. While the current price stands at $51,000, only a handful of mining firms remain below the profitability threshold.

Mitchell Askew, head analyst at Bitcoin mining firm Blockware Solutions, offers a contrasting viewpoint, suggesting that most U.S. miners, particularly those who invested in efficient machines during the bear market, are likely to maintain profitability post-halving. Askew downplays concerns about hash rate loss, stating that inefficient miners constitute only a small fraction of Bitcoin’s total hash rate.

Despite differing opinions on miner profitability, the prospect of global migration looms large, particularly towards countries offering lower electricity rates. Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Kenya emerge as promising destinations for Bitcoin mining operations, with Ethiopia’s surplus hydropower and influx of Chinese miners making it an attractive option. Mellerud predicts that Ethiopia could capture 5–10% of Bitcoin’s total hash rate in the coming years, signaling a potential shift in the geographic distribution of mining activities.

Historical trends suggest that after previous halving events, Bitcoin prices witnessed significant surges. For instance, following the May 11, 2020 halving, Bitcoin’s value soared by an impressive 430% within five months. However, if this trend does not repeat, there could be significant consequences for miners, especially those in the United States.

Mellerud emphasizes that miners paying higher hosting rates, specifically $0.07 per kWh or more, may face challenges. Notably, a concentration of such high-cost miners exists in the U.S. If the expected surge in Bitcoin prices does not materialize, there could be a need for miners to power down their machines.

In response to this potential scenario, Mellerud anticipates a migration of Bitcoin’s hash rate from the U.S. to countries offering lower electricity rates. African and Latin American countries, in particular, are becoming attractive destinations for miners seeking more favorable conditions.

However, the decision to relocate mining operations is not without its challenges. Many U.S. miners are bound by fixed hosting contracts, obligating them to continue mining regardless of profitability. Additionally, some miners prioritize accumulating non-Know Your Customer Bitcoin over immediate profitability, further complicating the migration process.

As discussions surrounding miner profitability and global migration intensify, the cryptocurrency community braces itself for the uncertain aftermath of the upcoming Bitcoin halving. While some anticipate a reshaping of the mining landscape with a shift towards more cost-effective jurisdictions, others remain optimistic about the resilience of U.S. miners in navigating the evolving dynamics of the crypto market.