Bitcoin has surged by an impressive 11%, reclaiming the $83,500 level despite mounting economic instability in the United States. While investors cheer the rebound, there’s growing debate about whether this surge is sustainable or if a major correction could soon follow. The cryptocurrency’s sharp recovery follows a week of heightened volatility in traditional markets, particularly in the U.S. bond sector. Treasury yields posted their biggest jump since 2001, and the market reacted strongly to the White House’s declaration of a 90-day pause on recently imposed tariffs. The economic landscape has shifted rapidly following former President Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day,” which introduced aggressive trade policies that may now be backfiring. Despite these turbulent conditions, Bitcoin has moved against the grain, recapturing key resistance zones that many analysts thought would crumble under macro pressure. What’s behind this resilience? It appears that whales—large holders with significant Bitcoin holdings—have played a central role in this rebound.

According to blockchain data, wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have collectively acquired over 100,000 BTC since March. This indicates that institutional investors or other high-net-worth individuals are accumulating rather than selling. At the same time, long-term holders, those who typically avoid reacting to short-term market moves, have added approximately 420,000 BTC to their reserves, bringing their total holdings to 13.6 million BTC. This strong accumulation behavior has coincided with Bitcoin’s recent price rebound and may be acting as a buffer against broader market sell-offs. Yet the picture isn’t entirely bullish. One key metric, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), currently sits at 0.68. This suggests that long-term holders are sitting on unrealized gains of about 68%, with the average acquisition price hovering near $49,700. While this is well below the euphoric 0.76 reading seen during Bitcoin’s run to $109,000 earlier this year, it still reflects a significant paper profit—raising concerns about potential profit-taking ahead.

There’s also the broader economic context to consider. With U.S. Treasury yields surging past 4.5%, borrowing costs are climbing rapidly. Reports suggest that between $7 trillion and $9.2 trillion in U.S. debt will require refinancing in 2025, further increasing financial stress. The bond market sell-off, believed to be driven by foreign investors pulling back, has created an environment of uncertainty that’s unlikely to stabilize anytime soon. As a result, the U.S. dollar’s image as a safe haven has taken a hit, leading some to view Bitcoin as a potential alternative. However, this shift may be premature. A temporary tariff pause doesn’t erase the underlying trade tensions with China, nor does it guarantee long-term market calm. If economic conditions worsen or if the 90-day pause ends without resolution, Bitcoin could face renewed pressure.

While the current momentum may excite traders, many analysts warn that it’s too early to declare a new bull run. A parabolic rise requires more than just accumulation and favorable technicals—it needs sustained confidence in a highly volatile macro environment. For now, Bitcoin has defied expectations, but whether it can maintain this course without triggering a major sell-off remains uncertain. Investors would be wise to remain cautious, as the current gains could quickly unravel in the face of renewed economic turbulence.