Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle remains to influence investor action and market cycles, with the present cycle heralding a significant change. As traders study on-chain information and sentiment signs, the picture becomes clearer: the market could be entering a new accumulation phase, a trend that has previously been succeeded by bullish rallies.

During every halving cycle, Bitcoin usually goes through three fundamental phases — accumulation, parabolic increase, and corrective crash. Although these phases are well documented, short-term sentiment and investor-induced fluctuations tend to produce micro-cycles within the overall framework.

Latest statistics point to the fact that long-term holders — individuals who’ve held BTC for more than three years — have started to accumulate again. This group has, per Glassnode, accumulated close to 363,000 BTC in their coffers since mid-February, reversing earlier distribution waves which released more than 2 million BTC into circulation cumulatively. These old-timers tend to be less sensitive to price fluctuations, normally accumulating at bottoms and selling closer to cycle highs.

Whales — specifically addresses with over 1,000 BTC — also exhibit such patterns. Within these, “mega-whales” with over 10,000 BTC have recently been increasing their buying activity. In early April, Glassnode recorded a nearly perfect accumulation score for such wallets, denoting heavy purchases. While the score has subsequently declined slightly to 0.65, it continues to depict continued strategic purchasing. This transition indicates big investors are buying up coins being offered by small traders, especially wallets with less than 100 BTC, whose accumulation scores have fallen to 0.1–0.2.

This reallocation suggests increasing optimism among the biggest market players, a historical harbinger of sustained upward pressure. The same configuration in August 2024 saw mega-whales attain their previous perfect accumulation rating as Bitcoin lingered near $60,000. Two months afterward, BTC went on to pass $100,000.

At the other end of the spectrum, short-term holders, as those that hold BTC between 3–6 months are described, are exhibiting signs of uncharacteristic restraint. The usual sellers at times of loss are now experiencing historically low outlays, notwithstanding a volatile macro environment. It implies that there are many more recent entrants that are holding on instead of panic-selling, a potential indication of growing conviction.

All that aside, if the price of Bitcoin continues to fall, these holders will be among the first to give up, and they can serve to fuel further declines. Their behavior has a consistent pattern that repeats historically, with spending surges every 8 to 12 months.

Sentiment is still a strong driver among all cohorts in the markets. CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index, which tracks emotional changes through various metrics, sits in the fear to extreme fear space. This ongoing pessimism has also been shaped by more general geopolitical influences, such as U.S. trade tensions and stock market volatility. But market psychology is often cyclical. With fear peaking and selling pressure maturing, sentiment tends to recover — perhaps sowing the seeds for a neutral or even positive frame of mind in the coming months.

The long-term path of Bitcoin remains highly dependent on investor sentiment and aggregate action. Although price action isn’t always a set schedule, the rhythm of the halving cycle — and the acceptance by traders — instills a self-perpetuating process. As whales build up and short-term holders remain consistent, Bitcoin could be setting the stage for its next big move in the cycle.