Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a tight range recently, leaving market participants uncertain about its next move. After breaking below the $100K level, Bitcoin has faced resistance at higher levels while still being supported around the $92K mark. The key question now is whether Bitcoin will experience a deeper correction, potentially dropping below $80K, or if it will recover and continue its upward trajectory toward a new all-time high (ATH).

Technical Analysis: Daily Chart Insights

On the daily chart, Bitcoin has been trading sideways for the past few weeks, showing little indication of a decisive break in either direction. The price action has been constrained below the critical $100K resistance level, with support around the $92K zone. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been hovering below the 50% mark, indicating bearish momentum, Bitcoin remains above its key 200-day moving average (MA), which is currently situated around the $80K level.

The 200-day MA is a critical support level that could play a pivotal role in determining Bitcoin’s future direction. If Bitcoin faces further selling pressure and drops toward the $80K zone, it may experience a deeper correction before a bullish continuation. On the other hand, if BTC holds above this support, it could consolidate and build strength for a future breakout.

Short-Term Outlook: The 4-Hour Chart Pattern

Looking at the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has been forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, which indicates uncertainty and indecision in the market. A symmetrical triangle typically forms when the price moves between converging trendlines, and the breakout direction often determines the next significant move. The price recently encountered resistance near the upper boundary of the triangle and was subsequently rejected.

Currently, the price is testing the lower boundary of the triangle, which suggests the potential for a bearish move in the short term. The RSI on the 4-hour chart has dropped below 50%, further signaling that sellers could be in control. If Bitcoin breaks down below the lower trendline, a decline toward the $92K level would be a plausible outcome. On the other hand, if Bitcoin manages to break above the upper trendline of the triangle, it could trigger a bullish move toward higher price levels.

On-Chain Analysis: Exchange Reserve Behavior

Analyzing on-chain data can offer valuable insights into Bitcoin’s market sentiment. One such metric is the BTC exchange reserve, which tracks the amount of Bitcoin held in exchange wallets. An increase in exchange reserves generally indicates that market participants are preparing to sell, adding to the selling pressure. Conversely, a decline in exchange reserves suggests that traders are moving their Bitcoin to cold storage or other wallets, which could indicate accumulation or reduced selling interest.

Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin’s exchange reserve has decreased, signaling reduced selling pressure. However, in recent days, there has been a slight increase in reserves, which could suggest some uncertainty in the market. If this trend continues, it could point to a potential decline in Bitcoin’s price in the short term as more participants may look to sell their holdings.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin’s price remains at a critical juncture. The price action on both the daily and 4-hour charts suggests that BTC could either break down below key support levels or reclaim higher levels and move toward a new ATH. Investors should closely monitor the $80K level as a potential pivot point for Bitcoin’s next significant move.

While the market sentiment remains mixed, with some indicators suggesting bearish pressure and others pointing to a possible continuation of the bullish trend, Bitcoin’s future price movement will depend on how these key levels hold up in the coming weeks. As always, it’s essential to stay informed and be prepared for any volatility in the unpredictable cryptocurrency market.