Bitcoin (BTC) has been navigating a volatile market recently, currently hovering between $84,968 and $85,168. With a market capitalization of $1.68 trillion, Bitcoin’s price continues to fluctuate within an intraday range of $1,551, trading between $83,682 and $85,233. Despite the recent pullbacks, Bitcoin remains 21.7% below its all-time high of $108,000 set on January 20, 2025. For now, the cryptocurrency is experiencing a consolidation phase, with price movements suggesting key levels that could influence the market’s next direction.

Daily Chart Analysis

From a daily chart perspective, Bitcoin has shown a gradual recovery after a descending trend that began near $99,508 and hit a low of $76,680. This formed the basis for a lateral consolidation phase, where the price has gained slight upward momentum. The candlestick structure is reflecting reduced body sizes, indicating market indecision or early accumulation behavior. As it currently stands, Bitcoin hovers just above key support levels near $83,000, with stronger foundational support found around $76,700.

Resistance is noted around the $88,000 to $89,000 range. For a potential bullish breakout, a daily close above $86,000 with accompanying volume could suggest further upside, potentially targeting $89,000 or higher. However, traders should stay alert to signs of rejection near these resistance levels to manage exit strategies effectively.

Short-Term Price Action and Fibonacci Levels

Looking at the four-hour chart, Bitcoin has been recovering from a low of $81,138, climbing to $87,470 before encountering a corrective phase. Despite the pullback, the formation of higher lows suggests underlying bullish pressure. The key resistance level remains at $87,470, with support developing around $83,500. If Bitcoin can break above this resistance level with sustained volume, a short-term rally toward $88,500 or higher could be in play.

If Bitcoin fails to clear the resistance, there is a risk of retracing to the $83,500 level, which would suggest that the upward momentum has stalled. This price range is critical for Bitcoin’s short-term outlook.

Hourly Chart and Momentum Indicators

On the one-hour chart, Bitcoin is showing signs of an upward channel, supported by increasing buy-side volume. The price lifted from $83,682 to a session high of $85,233, and maintaining a position above $85,000 is crucial for sustaining bullish sentiment. A retest and reclaim of $85,233 would likely trigger upward momentum, potentially pushing Bitcoin toward $86,000 to $86,500 in the short term. On the flip side, a breakdown below $84,000, particularly with rising sell volume, could trigger stop-losses and undermine bullish setups.

Momentum indicators are giving mixed signals. The relative strength index (RSI) stands at 48, suggesting neutral momentum, while other indicators like the stochastic at 71 and the commodity channel index (CCI) at 13 also reflect a balance in market sentiment. The average directional index (ADX) at 32 shows that a trend is in place, but it lacks strong conviction. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and the momentum indicator, however, point to modest bullishness.

Fibonacci Retracement and Key Levels

Fibonacci retracement levels play a significant role in identifying potential entry and exit points. The 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% retracement levels are likely to act as key points of interest, offering tactical entry opportunities during price pullbacks. Traders should also keep an eye on the 78.6% and 100% retracement levels to manage downside risk through stop-losses.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

For a bullish scenario, Bitcoin must maintain support above $85,000 and secure a decisive close above $85,233, supported by increasing volume. This could pave the way for a rally toward $86,500 to $88,500. If Bitcoin manages to break resistance at $89,000, further gains could follow.

On the other hand, if Bitcoin fails to hold the $84,000 support level, the upward momentum could be invalidated, and the price may revert to lower support zones at $83,000 or even $81,138. The bearish trend is reinforced by the longer-term moving averages, which remain in sell territory.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s immediate future hinges on its ability to hold above critical support levels. If Bitcoin manages to break through the resistance levels, a further rally toward $89,000 is possible. However, if the support at $83,000 fails, a bearish scenario may unfold. Traders should monitor key levels, including the Fibonacci retracement zones, to gauge market direction effectively.