Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade approximately 14% below its all-time high, but according to renowned economist and trader Alex Krüger, the digital asset is far from reaching its peak. Speaking on the Unchained podcast, Krüger expressed his bullish outlook, suggesting that Bitcoin has significant room to grow. He believes the cryptocurrency is poised for a long-term upward trajectory, defying traditional market cycles.
The End of Bitcoin’s Traditional Halving Cycles?
Historically, Bitcoin’s price movements have been strongly influenced by the event known as “the halving.” Occurring approximately every four years, the halving reduces the reward for mining Bitcoin by half, which decreases the supply of new coins. This reduction in supply often triggers a price surge as demand remains steady or increases. However, Krüger suggests that Bitcoin’s market dynamics are shifting, with the introduction of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January 2024 marking a significant change.
Krüger emphasizes that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has altered the way the market behaves, leading Bitcoin to become less dependent on the halving cycles that have historically driven its price growth. Instead, the introduction of ETFs allows institutional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin through traditional investment channels, increasing overall demand and creating a more stable correlation between Bitcoin and traditional assets like equities.
Bitcoin’s New Market Cycle: The Supercycle
According to Krüger, the traditional four-year halving-driven cycles may no longer be the best model for understanding Bitcoin’s price action. With the entry of ETFs and institutional capital, Bitcoin could enter a “supercycle,” a long-term market cycle that is not bound by the same predictable peaks and troughs as previous cycles.
Krüger asserts that while Bitcoin may not necessarily follow the usual halving-driven price patterns, it could still experience steady growth over time. The supercycle model suggests that Bitcoin could face smaller, shorter corrections rather than the long, deep bear markets often seen in the past. This shift means that Bitcoin’s price movements may become more sustainable, allowing for gradual price appreciation with relatively brief periods of consolidation.
Market Conditions: Shorter Corrections and Sustained Growth
In his podcast appearance, Krüger clarified that a supercycle doesn’t mean that Bitcoin’s price will only go up. Instead, he predicts that any corrections in Bitcoin’s price will be shorter and less severe, especially as long as broader markets and the global economy perform well. With more institutional interest and ETFs pushing the market forward, Krüger believes the next few years will see smaller price pullbacks, followed by continued price increases. These cycles of ups and downs would be less volatile compared to traditional halving-driven patterns.
Bitcoin’s current trading price of $93,134 reflects a minor dip of about 10% from its high of $102,000 in 2025. Despite the minor correction, Krüger remains confident in Bitcoin’s future growth potential. He believes that the financial system’s growing adoption of Bitcoin as an asset class will continue to propel the cryptocurrency to new highs.
Looking Ahead: What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin’s recent price fluctuations have raised questions about its future performance. However, the shift toward a supercycle model, driven by new market dynamics such as Bitcoin ETFs and increased institutional involvement, suggests that Bitcoin’s price is set for sustained growth over the long term. While the asset may experience some smaller corrections along the way, Krüger’s analysis points to a future where Bitcoin steadily rises, driven by growing demand and a less volatile market environment.
In conclusion, Bitcoin may be entering a new phase in its market evolution. The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs and the changing landscape of institutional investment are key factors that could fuel its ascent. For those who follow Bitcoin’s price closely, the next few years may represent a period of gradual yet significant growth.
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