Bitcoin’s price movements have been a rollercoaster lately, with the cryptocurrency crossing $64,000 before experiencing a brief dip. However, a key indicator has once again flashed, raising speculation about the possibility of a major rally in the near future. With investors on edge, this could be the sign they’re looking for, as Bitcoin appears ready to break out of its recent fluctuations.

Bitcoin’s Key Indicator Flashing Again

Bitcoin’s price briefly soared above $64,000 last week, only to face a 2% correction in the last 24 hours, bringing it down to $63,117. While this minor dip might seem discouraging, there’s a potential silver lining. A key indicator, identified by popular crypto analyst Axel, has flashed for the fifth time in Bitcoin’s history. This particular indicator, which historically precedes significant price movements, could suggest that Bitcoin is gearing up for another major rally.

According to Axel’s analysis, the alert that recently appeared has shown up in Bitcoin’s chart on four other occasions—2015, 2016, 2017, and 2023. Each time, BTC experienced considerable price increases shortly after. If this pattern holds, investors may be witnessing the start of a fresh bull rally.

Bitcoin’s Volatility Compression: What Does It Mean?

Axel pointed out that Bitcoin’s volatility has been steadily compressing for the past six months, which often precedes a major price movement. Volatility compression occurs when price fluctuations become narrower over time, often setting the stage for a breakout—either upwards or downwards. With the key indicator flashing, many are betting that Bitcoin could be poised for an upward breakout.

This volatility pattern, combined with Bitcoin’s historic price behavior, suggests that BTC could be on the verge of another bullish move, potentially driving it past key resistance levels.

Will History Repeat Itself?

Whenever this key indicator has appeared in the past, Bitcoin has seen significant upward movement. In 2017, for instance, this signal preceded Bitcoin’s surge to its all-time high of nearly $20,000. Similarly, after the alert in 2023, BTC experienced a strong rally. Investors are now wondering if history will repeat itself, with the potential for Bitcoin to rally toward new highs.

On-Chain Metrics Offer Mixed Signals

To get a clearer picture, analysts have turned to on-chain data. According to Glassnode’s data, Bitcoin recently jumped above its potential market bottom of $61.8K, which is a positive sign. Additionally, the Pi Cycle Top indicator suggests that Bitcoin’s price could push towards a market top of $109K in the coming weeks or months. If this indicator holds true, the cryptocurrency could be on the brink of a substantial rally.

However, not all signals point to a straightforward bull run. Data from Crypto Quant revealed that Bitcoin’s Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSORP) has turned red. This means that more investors are now selling their BTC at a profit, which can be a sign that the market is nearing a local top.

Will Bitcoin Break Through $64K Resistance?

Despite the optimistic outlook, Bitcoin is currently facing significant resistance at the $64,000 mark. According to Trading View’s data, BTC was rejected at this level, signaling that it could struggle to break higher in the short term. The coin has also touched the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands, which typically suggests a price correction might be on the horizon.

If Bitcoin fails to break above $64K–$65K, there’s a chance it could drop back to around $62,000. However, if the coin manages to overcome this resistance, it could a new wave of liquidations, potentially triggering further upward movement.

Liquidation Heatmap: What to Expect

Data from Hy block Capital reveals that Bitcoin’s liquidation levels are concentrated around the $64K–$65K range. If Bitcoin surpasses this level, it could lead to a spike in liquidations, which typically causes short-term price corrections. In the current market environment, liquidation spikes could either act as a short-term headwind or fuel a sustained rally, depending on market momentum.

For Bitcoin to maintain its upward trajectory, it’s crucial that it not only breaks through the $64K resistance but also holds above this level. A failure to do so could result in another dip, possibly down to $60K.

Conclusion: Rally or Correction?

While Bitcoin’s recent price action has been choppy, the flashing of the key indicator for the fifth time is a strong signal that a major move could be coming. On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin could be heading towards a new bull rally, with the potential to reach the $109K mark in the long term.

However, the immediate challenge remains the $64K–$65K resistance zone. If Bitcoin can break and hold above this level, it could ignite a fresh rally. Conversely, a failure to do so could lead to a price correction down to $62K or lower. As always, investors should remain cautious and keep a close eye on both technical indicators and on-chain metrics in the days ahead.