Home Bitcoin News Bitcoin’s MACD Crossover Signals a Potential 40% Rally – Will BTC Hit $100k in This Cycle

Bitcoin’s MACD Crossover Signals a Potential 40% Rally – Will BTC Hit $100k in This Cycle

BTC price prediction

Bitcoin (BTC) is once again in the spotlight as recent technical indicators suggest a potential upward trend. One of these indicators, the weekly MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) crossover, has fueled optimism among investors and analysts alike. Historically, a bullish MACD crossover has been associated with substantial gains in Bitcoin’s price, raising the question: Could BTC really hit $100k in this market cycle?

Crypto analyst Crypto Bullet recently pointed out that Bitcoin’s MACD crossover, which just occurred on the weekly chart, is often followed by notable price rallies. However, while some forecasts are eyeing figures as high as $288k based on ultra-bullish projections, the current cycle may see a more conservative peak near the $100k level.

MACD Crossover: What It Means for Bitcoin’s Price Movement

The MACD indicator is widely used by traders to gauge momentum and potential trend shifts in the market. When a MACD crossover appears on the weekly chart, it’s generally a bullish signal, often hinting at a strong upward movement in the asset’s price. In this case, Bitcoin’s recent crossover marks the first since October 2023, a point at which BTC went on to rally by 172% within just five months.

This latest crossover has brought similar excitement among BTC investors, yet there are a few nuances that may lead to different results this time around. Crypto Bullet argues that while a strong rally may still be on the cards, it is likely to be more moderate compared to previous cycles, with a possible 40% increase on the horizon.

Historical Comparisons: How Much Can We Expect From This Rally?

To better understand what might come next for Bitcoin, let’s look back at how BTC has performed following previous MACD crossovers. In the 2017-2018 bull market, the weekly MACD bullish crossover led to a massive 617% increase, while the 2020 crossover saw Bitcoin’s price surge by 468%. In contrast, the October 2023 crossover that occurred before Bitcoin’s halving yielded a 172% rally.

While these numbers are impressive, the market environment and investor expectations have evolved. Currently, some traders are preparing for a cycle peak around $100k, in line with the Fibonacci extension levels that highlight price targets of $109k and $132k. This technical framework suggests that BTC’s potential price growth may be substantial yet more conservative compared to prior cycles.

Fibonacci Levels Support a Target Between $100k and $132k

Crypto Bullet’s analysis also considers the Fibonacci extension levels, which help in identifying potential price targets based on historical price swings. These levels indicate possible peaks for BTC at $109k and $132k, providing a structured outlook for those aiming to time the top of the current cycle.

While these figures don’t align with the ultra-bullish projections of $288k or higher, they offer a more conservative roadmap that still promises substantial gains. With Bitcoin’s historical cycles as a reference, the Fibonacci levels reinforce the notion that a gradual rally toward $100k or slightly above is feasible – though not without potential corrections along the way.

Growing Bitcoin Accumulation Signals Bullish Sentiment

Another factor supporting BTC’s upward trend is the rise in accumulation addresses – Bitcoin addresses that have only seen inflows and no outflows. These addresses, which tend to represent long-term holders have been on the rise, suggesting increasing confidence in Bitcoin’s future.

Data from early 2024 shows that addresses holding a minimum of 10 BTC have grown significantly, collectively holding 2.9 million BTC compared to 1.5 million at the beginning of the year. This HODL mentality suggests that despite price fluctuations, investors are optimistic about BTC’s long-term potential.

As more BTC is held in these accumulation addresses, the likelihood of a supply squeeze increases, which could create upward pressure on the price. This trend, combined with the MACD crossover and bullish Fibonacci levels, could set the stage for the next leg of Bitcoin’s journey toward new highs.

How Will Bitcoin Perform Leading Up to the Next Halving?

One important consideration is that the recent MACD crossover occurred before Bitcoin’s next halving event, expected in mid-2024. Historically, Bitcoin tends to experience a pre-halving rally, followed by a period of consolidation or slight correction leading up to the halving itself. Past cycles have shown substantial gains after the halving, as the reduced supply often leads to price appreciation.

Crypto Bullet suggests that while a 40% rally is possible in the short term, BTC’s trajectory could become less predictable post-halving. In fact, some analysts believe this MACD-driven rally may represent the last major move before a consolidation phase, with a more substantial bull run materializing after the halving.

Bottom Line: Will Bitcoin Reach $100k?

While ultra-optimistic forecasts may predict a sky-high $288k, more conservative projections for Bitcoin suggest that a rally to $100k is attainable, provided BTC continues to hold key support levels and capitalize on favorable market conditions. The combination of the MACD crossover, rising accumulation, and Fibonacci levels adds weight to this scenario, giving BTC a potentially strong foundation for growth.

However, investors should remain aware of possible corrections and volatility. With Bitcoin’s next halving event just months away, there may still be periods of sideways movement or slight pullbacks as the market adjusts to new dynamics. For now, though, Bitcoin seems well-positioned for a strong move, with the $100k target in sight.

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Maheen Hernandez

A finance graduate, Maheen Hernandez has been drawn to cryptocurrencies ever since Bitcoin first emerged in 2009. Nearly a decade later, Maheen is actively working to spread awareness about cryptocurrencies as well as their impact on the traditional currencies. Appreciate the work? Send a tip to: 0x75395Ea9a42d2742E8d0C798068DeF3590C5Faa5

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