Bitcoin (BTC) has captured market attention with its recent rally, pushing towards new highs in US dollar terms. Despite nearing an all-time high price of $93,500, Bitcoin has yet to surpass its previous records against major macro assets like the S&P 500 and gold. This leaves investors questioning: Is BTC poised for a breakout towards $100K, or is a sudden market crash imminent?

Bitcoin’s Current Market Landscape

Bitcoin’s recent performance has been impressive, surging by nearly 50% in the fourth quarter. It reached a new high of around $93,500, ignite excitement among investors. However, when compared against traditional assets such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and gold, Bitcoin is yet to reclaim its dominant position from 2021.

Caleb Franzen, the creator of Cubic Analytics, pointed out in a recent post that Bitcoin’s outperformance against these major indices is “a matter of when, not if.” According to Franzen, Bitcoin’s climb in US dollar terms has been noteworthy, but the real challenge lies in beating historical records set against these macro assets.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 remain unbeaten by Bitcoin’s recent rally. This was particularly evident in early 2021 when Bitcoin’s surge did not translate into a broader macro breakout against these indices. Despite hitting record highs in USD value, Bitcoin still trails behind gold and the NYSE FANG+ index, indicating room for growth if BTC is to truly lead the asset class performance once again.

Comparing Bitcoin’s Performance Against Gold and Stocks

Bitcoin’s struggle to outperform other macro assets like gold has been a focal point for analysts. Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, recently highlighted Bitcoin’s lag in matching gold’s all-time highs, which were reached earlier this year. He drew a comparison between Bitcoin’s current situation and gold’s breakout in the 2000s after two decades of underperformance since its 1980 peak. Edwards suggested that Bitcoin might be entering a similar phase of “rapid repricing,” where it could break past previous highs and set new records across the board.

Historically, gold’s resurgence took years, and it only started a strong upward trajectory after a prolonged period of stagnation. Edwards believes Bitcoin could follow a similar pattern, where it consolidates before eventually breaking out, potentially leading to a significant surge in price.

This analysis aligns with the sentiments of many bullish investors who believe that Bitcoin’s full breakout against traditional assets is inevitable. However, this optimism is counterbalanced by increasing caution from other market participants who foresee potential risks ahead.

Black Swan Event Warnings: Bearish Scenarios to Consider

While many are focused on Bitcoin’s potential breakout, some prominent traders are issuing warnings of a possible downturn. One of the most vocal among them is the pseudonymous trader “Il Capo of Crypto,” known for his bearish predictions. On November 15, he posted a cryptic message hinting at an upcoming black swan event that could severely impact Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Without elaborating on the specifics, his post quickly gained traction across social media, fueling speculation about an impending market crash. His previous bearish calls, including a target of $12,000 for Bitcoin during its 2022 bear market, have made him a controversial figure in the crypto space. Many traders are now paying close attention to his signals, wary of a sudden market reversal.

In a related take, another analyst known as Credible Crypto, predicted a potential pullback to $72,000 if Bitcoin fails to maintain its upward momentum. He highlighted that a decisive move above $93,800 could invalidate this bearish scenario, suggesting that such a breakout would likely push Bitcoin beyond $100,000 before any significant correction occurs.

“If we hit highs at $93.8K in a clear, impulsive move and break past $100K, the likelihood of falling back to $72K or below is minimal until the next bear market,” Credible Crypto stated. His analysis reflects the cautious optimism among traders who believe in Bitcoin’s potential but remain vigilant about possible corrections.

Will Bitcoin Reach $100K or Face a Correction?

As Bitcoin teeters near its all-time highs, market sentiment is split between expectations of a massive breakout and fears of a dramatic crash. The crypto’s price has shown strong resilience, but it must overcome key resistance levels to sustain its upward trajectory. Breaking past $93,800 could set the stage for a rally towards $100,000, a target that many bullish investors have been eyeing for years.

On the flip side, failure to maintain current price levels could lead to a sharp pullback, with analysts pointing to $72,000 as a key support level. If a black swan event occurs, as warned by Il Capo of Crypto, the market could see a sudden and severe downturn, disrupting Bitcoin’s bullish momentum.

The Road Ahead

For now, Bitcoin’s next big move remains uncertain. Bulls are hopeful that the current consolidation phase will pave the way for new highs, particularly if Bitcoin can outperform traditional assets like gold and the S&P 500. Meanwhile, the warnings from bearish analysts remind investors of the risks associated with the volatile crypto market.

Whether Bitcoin breaks out towards $100K or experiences a sharp correction, the coming weeks are likely to be pivotal for its price action. Investors will need to watch key indicators closely and prepare for either scenario as market conditions evolve.