U.S. presidential election approaches, the influence of the political landscape on Bitcoin’s future price has sparked widespread debate. According to Standard Chartered, a leading global financial institution, the outcome of the election could play a significant role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory.

In a report led by Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets, Bitcoin is projected to see substantial gains by the end of 2024. Depending on the election result, Bitcoin could either soar to new heights or face a more gradual climb. If former President Donald Trump returns to office, Kendrick suggests Bitcoin could reach $125,000, while a Kamala Harris victory could see the cryptocurrency hit $75,000.

Political Influence on Bitcoin’s Price

Political outcomes have historically impacted financial markets, and Bitcoin is no exception. However, Standard Chartered posits that the influence of the upcoming election on Bitcoin may be less pronounced than during the 2020 contest between Biden and Trump.

Kendrick explains that regulatory reforms will be the driving force behind Bitcoin’s future, rather than the election itself. Both Trump and Harris are likely to oversee key regulatory changes that could benefit the cryptocurrency. One of the most significant is the potential repeal of SAB 121—a stringent accounting policy enforced by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding banks’ holdings of digital assets. The bank believes this reform could happen as early as 2025, creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin’s growth.

While Trump is seen as more pro-crypto, a Harris administration is not expected to significantly hinder Bitcoin’s progress. Instead, regulatory changes may take longer under Harris, leading to a slower but still steady rise in Bitcoin’s price.

Regulatory and Economic Factors Beyond the Election

Beyond the election, Standard Chartered’s forecast highlights other key factors supporting Bitcoin’s rise. Shifts in the U.S. Treasury market, for example, are expected to provide strong tailwinds for the cryptocurrency. The U.S. Treasury curve is currently “re-steepening,” meaning that break-even rates (the difference between nominal and real yields) are falling at a slower pace than real yields.

This shift creates a favorable backdrop for Bitcoin, as it indicates lower risk-neutral yields and stable term premiums. According to Kendrick, this trend is building “positive momentum” for Bitcoin’s long-term price movement.

The broader market context also remains supportive. Bitcoin’s adoption continues to expand, with more institutional investors and retail users incorporating the cryptocurrency into their portfolios. Additionally, the anticipation of regulatory clarity, particularly in the U.S., has fueled optimism about Bitcoin’s prospects.

Miner Profitability and Bitcoin’s Growth

Standard Chartered’s bullish stance on Bitcoin is not new. Earlier this year, the bank projected that Bitcoin could reach as high as $150,000 by the end of 2024 if Trump returns to office, driven by favorable political conditions and continued economic growth.

In its July outlook, the bank maintained a positive forecast for Bitcoin, predicting a price of $120,000 based on increased miner profitability. As Bitcoin’s price rises, miners benefit from higher returns on each BTC they mine. This allows them to sell fewer coins to cover operational costs, creating a supply-demand dynamic that further supports price growth.

Kendrick has emphasized that miner profitability remains a key factor in Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. As miners see greater returns per BTC mined, they can hold onto their coins longer, reducing the amount of Bitcoin entering the market. This reduced supply, combined with growing demand, has the potential to push Bitcoin prices higher in the coming months.

What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin?

The future of Bitcoin’s price is closely tied to broader economic and regulatory developments. Standard Chartered’s projections underscore the importance of regulatory reforms, particularly the potential repeal of SAB 121, in shaping Bitcoin’s long-term outlook.

While the 2024 election may have some impact on Bitcoin’s price, the report suggests that regulatory clarity and economic factors will be the primary drivers of Bitcoin’s growth. Regardless of whether Trump or Harris takes office, the cryptocurrency is expected to continue its upward momentum.

For investors, this signals a critical period of opportunity as Bitcoin nears what many believe will be another historic high. With a potential price range of $75,000 to $125,000 by the end of 2024, Bitcoin remains one of the most closely watched assets in the global financial market.