Bitcoin’s recent rally, which saw the cryptocurrency break past $109,000, has shown signs of slowing down as it now trades just above the $100,000 mark. As of the latest data, Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at $104,982, marking a 2.18% increase in the last 24 hours and a 3.58% gain over the past week. Despite these gains, its recent momentum seems to be slowing as long-term holders begin to sell off their positions.
After months of holding through the correction period that started in March 2024, long-term Bitcoin holders are now starting to sell their holdings. This behavior is reflected in the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) data, which shows that long-term holders refrained from selling during the price correction and instead accumulated more Bitcoin.
However, as Bitcoin’s price surged above $100,000, these long-term holders resumed selling, a pattern reminiscent of what was observed during the 2021 bull market. This selling activity, coupled with the fact that short-term holders are also profiting more frequently, has led to a slight slowdown in Bitcoin’s price growth.
Short-term holders, on the other hand, have continued to take profits, as shown by the frequent instances where the SOPR ratio exceeded 1.02. This indicates profitable selling by short-term investors. However, SOPR values above 1.06, typically seen at market cycle peaks, have not yet been reached, suggesting that there could still be room for additional price growth before the market reaches its peak.
Despite the selling pressure from long-term holders, UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) data shows that these holders still retain a substantial portion of Bitcoin. This suggests that the ongoing cycle has not yet ended and that Bitcoin’s price could continue to rise if the conditions are right.
Crypto analyst Ali has pointed out that $97,530 is a crucial support level for Bitcoin. Maintaining a price above this level is seen as vital for keeping the current bullish momentum intact. According to recent data from Glassnode, this price level corresponds with high activity in the market, making it a key zone for price stability.
If Bitcoin falls below the $97,530 support level, it could see further retracement to areas like $93,856 or even $90,000. These levels have historically seen strong activity and could act as a buffer before Bitcoin’s price stabilizes again.
On the upside, resistance is expected in the range of $100,967–$105,118. In this zone, many holders may choose to take profits, potentially limiting Bitcoin’s ability to break above these levels in the short term.
The derivatives market has seen a surge in trading activity, with Bitcoin’s derivatives volume rising by 74% to $172.56 billion. Open Interest also climbed by 1.19% to $68.52 billion. Additionally, options trading volume jumped by 74.28%, reaching $6.61 billion, with Open Interest increasing by 3.95%.
Despite the heightened activity, funding rates have been steadily declining. On January 24, 2025, the OI-weighted funding rate stood at 0.0038%, indicating a reduction in leverage and a more cautious sentiment among traders. This cautious outlook reflects the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s next move, as market participants remain wary of potential price retracements.
Despite the slowing price momentum, Bitcoin’s network hashrate remains strong, standing at 746.7 EH/s. While this is not at its all-time high, the elevated hashrate demonstrates continued investment in mining infrastructure and strong confidence from miners in the security and future of the Bitcoin network. This suggests that Bitcoin’s fundamental strength remains intact, even amid short-term price consolidation.
As Bitcoin consolidates above $100,000, its future price action will depend largely on the stability of key support levels and the broader market sentiment. If Bitcoin can hold above the critical support at $97,530, there is potential for continued upward movement. However, a failure to maintain this level could lead to a retracement, with $93,856 or $90,000 acting as the next possible support zones.
The increasing derivatives activity and the sustained hashrate indicate that there is cautious optimism in the market, though traders are keeping a close watch on Bitcoin’s price movements. With long-term holders still holding significant positions and the market displaying mixed signals, it will be crucial for Bitcoin to regain momentum to avoid further consolidation.
As traders continue to monitor these key levels, it’s clear that the next few weeks could be decisive for Bitcoin’s price trajectory in the ongoing market cycle.
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