Lark Davis Interrogated: Are bitcoin and crypto in a bear market? IMO, No. Thread.

First, what is a bear market? Definition. Prolonged price decline, down 20% from highs, negative sentiment. Does this apply to us now? Prolonged Decline? ATH was 5 weeks ago, is that prolonged? Down over 20%? Yes, but 20% ain’t no big thing in crypto Negative sentiment? Yes.

In fact sentiment is so low that yesterday the market was as fearful as we were in December 2018. If you weren’t around then this is when we dropped 50% in a few days after already being down 70% for BTC. Why so much fear now? Well, 50% of you have been here less than a year

So according to a “traditional” definition we are in bear town. Is the market bearish now? Yes. Do that equate to a bear market. No. BTC is still only putting in a higher low and has defended key support around 42k. Losing that would be bad news. 52k ish would be the bull flip.

On chain data also remains bullish. IE BTC exchange balances which keep dropping as the dip continues to be bought.

Have the fundamentals of crypto changed? No. Just people’s perception of those fundamentals do when the prices fall. I mean FFS hash rate just hit an ATH! Big money understands this which is why we see Canada’s BTC ETF adding another 4,000 BTC in December.

It was also announced today that Mubadala, UAE Sovereign Wealth Fund with 250 billion AUM, will start investing in crypto.

So to sum up, fear is high, prices are down, BUT fundamentals are strong, on chain data looks good, and technical are holding up. So if I don’t believe this is the start of a new multiyear bear market then WTF is going on? Consolidation & accumulation.

The market throws such events at us on a fairly regular basis. Did you believe it was the end of the world in July? Or were you buying the dip with me? Yes, the FED is likely to announce tapering this week. And that definitely is spooking some people.

But, the fed has already started tapering. Reducing 15 billion a month in November and December. If they speed this up to 30 billion monthly then the result remains the same, just a bit quicker. Inflation remains high, negative rates for the USA remain a real possibility.

Final thoughts: I’m not an oracle. If you believe this is a new multiyear bear market then sell and come back to buy my bags at the next top. I am personally going nowhere. I will still be here making content and investing in 10 years. Short-term, I will enjoy accumulation

Community Response:  Somebody tell Lark that most coins are down 40% or more than that from where they were 3 weeks ago. This guy is living under a rock and comes out of nowhere with such useless tweets. We were in a bear market since we hit 69k. Wake up. Smell coffee. Hello. Good Morning.

What do you think about macro? If Powell decides to taper now. Won’t stocks go down big and we get a black swan?

Tweets and thread are the sole reason why I believe we are in a bear market.  Buy the opposite of what he says, we are in bear market.

Short term correction but will drag alts much lower. I converted some of my alts into Bitcoin.

It is certainly bearish as weekly MACD is in the red. It will certainly be a bearish market if monthly MACD goes to red. Don’t interpret this tweet as “ok you good to go, fill up your bags it’ll be ok”. You’re going to get 100% wrecked. Keep an eye on the charts and you’ll be ok.

If I could be bothered, I would go back to similar tweets in MAY. Newbs out there do not listen to influencers. In case you weren’t here in May we went bear for 3-4 months.

People need to move away from getting fixated on these “bear” and “bull” phases IMO. That’s my takeaway from this year. History doesn’t repeat, but the rhyme is “NGU over time” and that’s all that matters. Remove bias and make your conviction as hard as steal.

Technically it’s a bear market, multi-year I doubt. If inflation continues to increase who knows where it’s going. Moon boys say HODL while the whales have dumped above 58k.