In the dynamic world of cryptocurrency, seasoned analyst and trader Justin Bennett is sending ripples through the crypto community with his latest insights on the future of Bitcoin (BTC). With over 110,700 followers on the social media platform X, Bennett believes that Bitcoin could face a substantial market correction, potentially plummeting by over 74% from its current value, should a black swan event trigger a severe downturn.

Bennett draws parallels to the market behavior observed in 2020 when Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. He suggests that a range between $10,000 and $15,000 for BTC is still plausible, emphasizing that while COVID was an unprecedented black swan event, the current landscape is riddled with systemic issues that could act as potential triggers for a similar downturn. The analyst supports his claim by pointing to a monthly chart, indicating that Bitcoin might revisit the diagonal support level it touched during the pandemic, following resistance at the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.768.

Adding another layer to his analysis, Bennett looks beyond the crypto market and suggests that the performance of the Euro against the U.S. dollar (EUR/USD) signals a broader downward trend for Bitcoin and the overall crypto market. According to him, the fiat currency market is displaying warning signs that should not be overlooked by those navigating the crypto seas.

Contrary to popular expectations surrounding Bitcoin’s upcoming halving event in April, Bennett offers a contrarian perspective. While acknowledging the significance of halvings in Bitcoin’s long-term tokenomics, he argues that economic data plays a pivotal role in determining market cycle tops and bottoms. Bennett warns that even with the halving, Bitcoin may not experience the anticipated rally if unfavorable macroeconomic conditions persist.

Shifting focus to Ethereum (ETH), Bennett notes that the second-largest cryptocurrency failed to maintain support above the crucial $2,400 level. He contends that this failure has transformed $2,400 into a resistance level, and he boldly states, “It’s still my very unpopular opinion that the top is in for crypto.”

Bennett contends that a potential decline of more than 74% from the current value of Bitcoin could be on the horizon, triggered by a black swan event – an unforeseen and extreme market occurrence. Referencing the past, he points to the crypto king’s drastic fall at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, emphasizing that historical patterns could repeat themselves.

” $10,000-$15,000 BTC is still in the cards, IMO (in my opinion). Sure, COVID was a black swan, but it’s not like we don’t have a laundry list of systemic issues to choose from this time around. The chart speaks for itself,” warns Bennett.

Analyzing the monthly chart, Bennett suggests that Bitcoin might descend to the diagonal support level witnessed during the pandemic after encountering resistance at the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.768. His analysis extends beyond Bitcoin, drawing attention to the Euro’s performance against the U.S. dollar (EUR/USD) as an indicator of a broader downward trend in the crypto market.

“The fiat currency market is once again flashing warning signs about what could be next for Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market,” notes Bennett.

Adding another layer to his warning, Bennett questions the commonly held belief that Bitcoin’s upcoming halving event in April is an automatic catalyst for a rally. Contrary to popular sentiment, he suggests that economic data holds more sway in determining market cycle tops and bottoms.

As of the latest update, Ethereum is trading at $2,213, marking a nearly 1% increase over the past 24 hours. Bennett’s cautious stance on Ethereum aligns with his overall skepticism about the current trajectory of the crypto market.

In the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrency, traders and enthusiasts alike are keeping a close eye on these insights from Justin Bennett. His analysis provides a roadmap for navigating the uncertainties ahead, shedding light on potential pitfalls and emphasizing the need for a comprehensive understanding of both internal crypto dynamics and external economic factors.