The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a staggering $541.1 million net outflow on Monday, November 4—marking their second-largest outflow day in history. The timing comes as markets brace for heightened volatility tied to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with the BTC price hovering around $68,000.
Despite a positive run in the days leading up to November, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced two consecutive days of net outflows following a week of inflows that had totaled around $2.2 billion. As of November 4, notable outflows included:
However, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) stood as the lone ETF to see inflows, totaling $38.4 million.
Bitcoin traders appear to be scaling back exposure, anticipating potential election-driven volatility. The BTC price has fallen about 4.6% over the past week, and 1.7% in the last 24 hours, trading close to $68,000. This market caution reflects sensitivity to polling shifts and evolving sentiment surrounding the presidential candidates.
Coin Shares head of research James Butter fill noted that early inflows in the week were ignite by optimism over a possible Republican win. However, minor outflows began as the race tightened, underscoring Bitcoin’s susceptibility to political events.
The U.S. election’s potential influence on Bitcoin is tied to the candidates’ positions on cryptocurrency. Donald Trump, the Republican contender, has a pro-crypto stance, which has boosted confidence among crypto traders. In contrast, Kamala Harris is seen as more moderate, with less emphasis on crypto-specific policies.
Polls are nearly deadlocked, with Harris holding a slim 1.2% lead according to FiveThirtyEight data as of November 4. Trump’s odds, however, have fluctuated on crypto betting platforms, rising from a dip at 53.8% back to over 59% in recent days.
The speculation around Trump’s potential win has led some analysts to forecast a rally toward $100,000 for Bitcoin if he prevails, owing to expectations of favorable policies.
The substantial ETF outflows suggest short-term caution among institutional investors, but the long-term outlook remains bullish if market stability resumes post-election. Analysts are eyeing a possible short-term range of $78,000–$84,000 if Bitcoin can rebound from current levels, supported by the 1.618 and 2.618 Fibonacci extensions.
With Bitcoin historically reacting to U.S. elections with volatility and eventual recovery, the coming days may be pivotal in setting BTC’s trajectory for the rest of the year.
As election day approaches, sentiment in the Bitcoin market has turned cautious, with many investors pulling back from exposure. The ETF outflows indicate that traders are hedging against any unexpected swings, mindful of how past elections have stirred market volatility. The cryptocurrency market has grown more sensitive to U.S. political events, especially as regulations around digital assets remain a key issue. With each candidate presenting different stances on crypto, the outcome could have far-reaching implications.
Evie is a blogger by choice. She loves to discover the world around her. She likes to share her discoveries, experiences and express herself through her blogs.
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