Home Crypto Exchanges Cryptocurrency Markets Brace for $2.4 Billion Options Expiry Event: What to Expect

Cryptocurrency Markets Brace for $2.4 Billion Options Expiry Event: What to Expect

cryptocurrency options expiry

Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, finds itself amidst a flurry of options contracts set to expire, totaling around 23,000 contracts with a notional value of approximately $1.4 billion. Such figures are not unprecedented in the crypto realm, yet they carry substantial weight, especially in the current climate of heightened volatility.

A closer look at the composition of these options reveals intriguing insights. The put/call ratio stands at 0.49 for Bitcoin, indicating a higher prevalence of call or long contracts nearing expiry. This skew towards bullish positions is a notable aspect that could influence market sentiment in the short term.

However, the looming expiry also brings attention to the “max pain” point of these contracts, pegged at $61,000 for Bitcoin. This represents the price level at which the most losses would occur upon expiry, offering a crucial reference point for traders gauging potential price movements.

Deribit, a leading platform for crypto derivatives, sheds further light on the landscape, highlighting substantial open interest at strike prices above $70,000. Notably, there’s a staggering $661 million in open interest at the $100,000 strike price, though the feasibility of Bitcoin reaching such heights amidst current market conditions remains questionable.

The Ethereum market adds another layer of complexity to the equation, with approximately 330,000 options contracts set to expire, boasting a notional value of around $1 billion. Ethereum’s put/call ratio stands at 0.36, indicating a relatively stronger bullish sentiment compared to Bitcoin.

Market sentiment leading up to this event has been anything but stable. Cryptocurrency markets have experienced significant volatility, characterized by a recent downturn followed by a tentative recovery. Despite this, Bitcoin has struggled to regain its footing above the $60,000 mark, while Ethereum aims to reclaim the psychologically significant $3,000 threshold.

One of the key metrics under scrutiny is the put/call ratio, which provides insights into investors’ sentiment and positioning. For Bitcoin, this ratio stands at 0.49, indicating a higher proportion of long contracts expiring compared to shorts. Conversely, Ethereum’s put/call ratio is 0.36, suggesting a similar bullish bias among investors.

The concept of “max pain” also comes into play, referring to the price point at which the majority of options contracts would incur losses upon expiration. For Bitcoin, this max pain point is $61,000, slightly above current spot prices. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s max pain point resides at $3,000, a level recently reattained amidst market fluctuations.

Amidst this backdrop of options expiry, the broader cryptocurrency market has exhibited signs of recovery. Total market capitalization has witnessed a 4% uptick, reaching $2.35 trillion, offering a glimmer of hope to investors amidst recent downturns.

Bitcoin, the bellwether of the crypto space, has mirrored this modest recovery, hovering around $59,600 at the time of writing. However, the psychological barrier of $60,000 remains unconquered, serving as a focal point for market observers assessing the resilience of the current uptrend.

Despite the optimism surrounding the recovery, lingering concerns persist regarding the sustainability of bullish momentum, especially in light of recent market dynamics. The launch of spot crypto ETFs in Hong Kong failed to inject significant volume into the market, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs experiencing outflows amidst weakening market confidence.

Greeks Live, a prominent provider of crypto derivatives solutions, underscores the significance of implied volatility in assessing market sentiment. The decline in implied volatility across major terms reflects a cautious optimism prevalent in the market, reminiscent of the winter bull market’s average watermark.

As the cryptocurrency community awaits the outcome of this options expiry event, uncertainty looms large, with traders navigating choppy waters amidst conflicting signals and evolving market dynamics. The coming days will undoubtedly offer clarity on the trajectory of Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, shaping investor sentiment and market sentiment alike.

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dan saada

Dan hold a master of finance from the ISEG (France) , Dan is also a Fan of cryptocurrencies and mining. Send a tip to: 0x4C6D67705aF449f0C0102D4C7C693ad4A64926e9

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