Toncoin (TON), the cryptocurrency linked to the popular messaging app Telegram, has experienced a notable decline in value, dropping 28% over the past month. Currently priced at $3.89, this marks a historic low for the asset based on key risk metrics. While this price drop may be concerning for some investors, there are potential opportunities for long-term holders to take advantage of the current market conditions.

A Key Metric Points to Accumulation Potential

One of the most significant indicators pointing to a potential accumulation phase for Toncoin is its Normalized Risk Metric (NRM). According to CryptoQuant analyst Joao Wedson, TON has reached historically low levels on this metric, signaling that the cryptocurrency is trading at undervalued prices relative to its long-term trends. The NRM compares an asset’s current price with its weighted moving averages and provides a gauge of risk. When the NRM is low, as it is now, it suggests that the asset is in a low-risk accumulation zone, making it an attractive entry point for long-term investors.

The current low NRM positions Toncoin as a potentially undervalued asset, which, according to Wedson, could present an opportunity for investors who are confident in the token’s long-term growth. As the risk is at its minimum, it suggests that the asset has room for appreciation in the medium to long term, offering a possible upside for those who choose to accumulate now.

The MVRV Ratio Confirms TON’s Undervalued Status

Additionally, another key indicator, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, further supports the notion that Toncoin is undervalued at the moment. As of the latest analysis, TON’s MVRV ratio stands at -12.95%, indicating that the token’s market value is lower than its realized value. This negative ratio suggests that the coin is trading below the price investors initially paid for it, which is a classic “buy the dip” signal for those seeking long-term gains.

Historically, when an asset’s MVRV ratio is negative, it has often signaled a buying opportunity, as the market value is lower than what the token is truly worth based on its realized value. This makes TON an attractive prospect for investors looking to capitalize on its current price downturn, with the expectation that it could rebound in the future.

Short-Term Price Predictions for TON

Despite its historic lows, Toncoin has shown some resilience in the short term. Over the past 24 hours, it has increased by 1%, benefiting from the broader market rally. If this upward momentum continues, TON could potentially break above its critical resistance level of $4, moving toward $4.17. Should bullish support remain strong, the price might rise further to $4.96.

However, if the accumulation momentum fails to materialize, TON could see a pullback, and the price might drop to $2.91, a key support level. Investors should watch these levels closely to gauge the short-term direction of the asset.

Conclusion

Toncoin’s recent price decline and its low-risk metrics present an intriguing opportunity for long-term investors. With its NRM and MVRV ratios signaling undervaluation, TON may be poised for future growth if the broader market sentiment remains positive. Investors willing to accumulate during this “buy the dip” phase could potentially see long-term gains as Toncoin’s value rises once market conditions improve.