Toncoin (TON) has been at the forefront of the crypto market recently, enjoying a sharp rally that has positioned it as one of the top-performing high-cap assets. However, the cryptocurrency now faces a crucial test: Can it break through the $4 resistance level, or is it headed for a potential correction? To understand this, it’s essential to analyze the key level of $3.93, which could make or break Toncoin’s near-term price action.

A Rocky Road to Recovery

After experiencing a significant pullback to $2.45, a key demand zone that last saw activity in March 2024, Toncoin has mounted an aggressive recovery. This was an impressive bounce back from what could have been a major loss, signaling that the asset is still alive and kicking despite market fluctuations. The $4 level, however, has proven to be a stubborn resistance, triggering multiple rejections in recent weeks.

Despite these rejections, Toncoin has been on a steady upward trajectory, boasting a 19.54% rally over the past month alone. This strong performance has positioned the token as one of the leading cryptocurrencies in the high-cap category. Nevertheless, Toncoin’s brief attempt to push past $4 resulted in a quick reversal, suggesting that the momentum might be running out.

The Denial Phase: What’s Really Happening?

In market psychology, the denial phase is when investors refuse to accept signs of exhaustion in a trend. Even when faced with potential trend reversals, they continue to expect the price to rise. Toncoin seems to be in this phase now, with many participants holding onto hope that the uptrend will continue despite the technical signals suggesting otherwise.

The latest data supports this. After Toncoin’s brief rally above $4, it faced a sharp sell-off, indicating that the resistance at $4 is more substantial than it may appear. This rejection didn’t come with the typical signs of an overextended market, but rather a swift liquidity grab, where sell-side pressure absorbed the price surge.

This led to the liquidation of around $340 million in open positions, which pushed Toncoin’s price back down to around $3.80. Despite this setback, the cryptocurrency is now gearing up for another attempt to push toward the $4 resistance level, making the $3.93 zone a critical threshold to watch.

The Key Resistance at $3.93

For Toncoin to continue its bullish journey, it must overcome the $3.93 level, a significant supply zone. This level is crucial because 5.18 million addresses collectively hold 795.50 million Toncoin around this price point. If the price fails to break through this area, it could trigger a cascade of sell-offs, forcing even more investors to exit their positions.

In total, 3.12 billion Toncoin could be at risk if the price fails to sustain bullish momentum. A failure to break above $3.93 could lead to another short squeeze, leading to a prolonged period of consolidation within a liquidity trap. On the other hand, if Toncoin can push through this zone, it could pave the way for a sustained rally above the $4 resistance, marking a major turning point for the cryptocurrency.

Whale Activity: The Elephant in the Room

The role of large holders, or whales, is a critical factor in Toncoin’s price action. Whales currently control about 66.77% of the total supply of Toncoin, making their movements a key indicator of market sentiment. Over the past week, there has been a dramatic surge in whale net inflows, which increased by over 2,100%. This sharp rise in whale activity suggests that large holders are accumulating more Toncoin, possibly in anticipation of a breakout past the $4 resistance level.

This accumulation trend aligns with Toncoin’s recent breakout from the $3.35 consolidation range, signaling that there is strong buy-side interest in the asset. However, despite this bullish accumulation, it is important to consider the risk of a potential trend reversal, especially if the price fails to hold the $3.93 level.

What’s Next for Toncoin?

The big question now is whether Toncoin can break above the $4 resistance level or if it will face a deeper correction. Investors are anxiously watching to see if the denial phase will continue, or if the market will eventually recognize the signs of exhaustion.

A move past the $4 resistance is becoming increasingly likely, especially given the recent increase in Open Interest (OI) in the derivatives market, which saw a 7.70% rise. This suggests that more investors are positioning themselves for further upside. However, if Toncoin fails to maintain support at $3.93, it could trigger a significant wave of liquidations, potentially leading to a sharp pullback.

In the coming days, Toncoin’s ability to break through these critical levels and hold its ground will determine its next move. For now, the market remains divided: some believe in a breakout, while others are preparing for the possibility of a more significant pullback and re-accumulation phase.

Conclusion

Toncoin’s battle for the $4 level is far from over. While the cryptocurrency has shown impressive growth over the past month, the $3.93 supply zone remains a significant hurdle that could determine whether the rally continues or falters. With whales accumulating Toncoin at a rapid pace and market sentiment shifting into denial, it’s clear that this coin has the potential for further growth — but only if it can break past key resistance levels and avoid a mass capitulation. Investors should keep a close eye on these critical levels, as they will likely dictate Toncoin’s next major move in the market.