Bitcoin (BTC) has been showing remarkable resilience in recent days after a sharp drop triggered by geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. Currently trading around $62,000, Bitcoin appears to have formed a local bottom, which could set the stage for a potential upward trend. With demand rising and large-scale holders maintaining confidence, many in the market are wondering: can Bitcoin reclaim its higher levels and trend upward from here?
Bitcoin’s recent dip was followed by the liquidation of long positions, a common occurrence during significant market downturns. When these long contracts are liquidated, selling pressure often subsides, helping to stabilize the price. Many analysts believe that this latest round of liquidations has helped Bitcoin form a local bottom, positioning it for a potential rebound.
At present, Bitcoin is hovering just below the $63,000 mark, with key liquidity levels above and below the current price range. Notably, the $68,900 to $69,300 range represents a critical level of resistance, while support lies in the $56,800 to $57,400 zone. The emergence of a new liquidity cluster around $66,500 to $66,800 suggests that this area may be Bitcoin’s next price target if upward momentum continues.
Despite recent volatility, Bitcoin remains in a strong position on a macro level. The cryptocurrency is currently trading above its 100-week moving average (100MA), a key indicator of long-term strength. BTC’s price has oscillated between $55,000 and $75,000 for over 200 days, showcasing its resilience in the face of market pressures.
Another important factor is Bitcoin’s halving cycle, which plays a significant role in its price movements. Bitcoin is now 170 days past its most recent halving event, which occurred in April 2024. Historically, Bitcoin tends to reach new all-time highs (ATHs) around 1,080 days after the previous cycle’s peak. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could be gearing up for a significant price increase over the coming months.
Adding to the bullish sentiment is the Coinbase Premium indicator, a tool that tracks the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other exchanges. When the Coinbase Premium shows a positive differential, it often indicates increased buying pressure from institutional investors and a likely short-term price boost.
In recent days, this indicator has pointed towards a potential golden cross, a bullish technical pattern that historically leads to a short-term increase in Bitcoin’s price. With these factors in play, Bitcoin could experience a short-term rally from its current local bottom.
Another important factor contributing to Bitcoin’s potential price rise is the increasing demand from U.S.-based Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). After a period of net selling in early September, spot ETFs became net buyers by the end of the month, accumulating around 7,000 BTC — the highest level of ETF demand since July 2021.
In the first quarter of 2024, these ETFs purchased nearly 9,000 BTC daily, driving prices to new heights. If this buying trend continues, Bitcoin could see even more upward pressure, potentially pushing it beyond its current resistance levels as we move into the final quarter of 2024.
Perhaps the most telling indicator of Bitcoin’s future performance is the behavior of large holders, commonly known as “whales.” Historically, whales play a critical role in influencing Bitcoin’s price movements, and their current activity suggests that they are confident in BTC’s future growth.
Despite some recent profit-taking, whales have been distributing their Bitcoin holdings across multiple addresses, with only 1,975 addresses now holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC. Interestingly, whales have been relatively restrained in taking profits compared to previous cycles, indicating their belief in a future price increase.
This combination of whale confidence, limited profit-taking, and rising demand from ETFs all point towards a possible upward trend for Bitcoin in the near future.
With Bitcoin showing signs of strength, forming a local bottom, and benefiting from rising demand and whale activity, the outlook for BTC appears positive. The cryptocurrency’s ability to maintain its position above the 100-week moving average, combined with historical patterns from its halving cycle, suggests that BTC may be gearing up for further gains.
While the market remains volatile, all signs point to Bitcoin potentially trending higher from here. Investors and traders alike will be keeping a close watch on liquidity levels, ETF demand, and whale activity to see if Bitcoin can continue its upward momentum in the coming weeks.
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