Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a substantial rise over the past few days, fueled by a mix of macroeconomic factors. On April 9, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump’s declaration of a 90-day pause on tariffs fueled an 8.27% price surge, marking Bitcoin’s longest green candlestick in nearly a month. This was followed by a positive surprise on April 10 when U.S. core inflation dropped below 3.0% for the first time since March 2021, propelling Bitcoin’s price even further to $82,532.

With these back-to-back macro boosts, the cryptocurrency market appeared to gain momentum. However, despite these promising developments, Bitcoin’s future performance may face significant challenges. The next few weeks could be pivotal in determining whether Bitcoin can continue its upward trajectory or if it will experience a sharp downturn.

Short-Term Holders Face Rising Pressure

As Bitcoin’s price continues to fluctuate, short-term holders (STHs) are under increasing pressure. These are the investors who purchased Bitcoin at higher prices and are now holding positions that are in the red. Currently, Bitcoin’s realized price for these holders stands at around $93,000—far higher than the current market price.

Short-term holders may find themselves at a crossroads. Will they hold on to their positions, hoping that Bitcoin’s price will recover? Or, with increasing market volatility, will they be forced to sell their holdings to cut their losses? This decision is especially critical as Bitcoin’s short-term price action tests key support and resistance levels.

A Growing Risk of Capitulation

Bitcoin’s short-term holder supply is rapidly approaching a critical inflection point. In February 2025, the number of Bitcoins held by short-term holders peaked at a four-year high of 400,000 BTC. Since then, this figure has dropped to around 360,000 BTC, signaling that these holders have been distributing their assets in response to ongoing market pressures.

On-chain data from Glassnode indicates that the majority of these holdings were accumulated around the $93,000 mark. As Bitcoin’s price remains well below this level, around 360,000 BTC is now sitting in an unrealized loss state. This could heighten the risk of capitulation, where short-term holders are forced to sell their Bitcoin to prevent further losses.

More concerning is the fact that the realized price for short-term holders sits at two critical levels: $131,000 and $72,000. These levels represent the price points where Bitcoin may encounter significant liquidity and where short-term holders’ profit margins would begin to erode.

If Bitcoin falls below the $72,000 mark, short-term holders could see a 22% loss on their positions, which may lead to forced liquidations. Historically, such events have triggered cascading sell-offs in the market, amplifying the price decline. Therefore, the next few weeks could be a defining moment for Bitcoin, as it faces the real possibility of a dip to $72,000 before it can attempt a sustained breakout.

Key Resistance Levels and Market Dynamics

From a broader macroeconomic perspective, Bitcoin’s price action has continued to consolidate just below the pivotal $85,000 resistance level. Repeated rejections at this threshold indicate that it remains a significant barrier to Bitcoin’s short-term upward momentum. If Bitcoin can break above this level, it could trigger a cascade of short liquidations, further fueling the rally.

However, despite these potential triggers, there are signs of caution in the market. Bitcoin’s Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) has slipped below its baseline from earlier in March, signaling that futures traders are becoming more risk-averse. This shift suggests that many market participants are taking a more conservative approach, reducing their exposure to high-leverage positions.

The reduced risk appetite in the futures market is a clear sign of market uncertainty. Traders are increasingly wary of the possibility of a significant pullback, and this caution could prevent Bitcoin from achieving a sustained rally in the short term.

Will the Federal Reserve Delay Rate Cuts?

Adding another layer of complexity to Bitcoin’s price outlook is the Federal Reserve’s potential stance on interest rates. With market participants speculating that the central bank will delay rate cuts for a longer period, this could keep macroeconomic volatility high. The uncertainty surrounding interest rates could lead to further pressure on short-term holders, many of whom purchased Bitcoin at prices near $93,000.

In this environment, Bitcoin may struggle to maintain its recent gains. The combination of fear in the market, low speculative demand, and key resistance levels overhead could push the price back toward the critical $72,000 support level.

A Crossroads for Bitcoin

While Bitcoin’s recent surge is a positive development, the cryptocurrency market remains at a crossroads. The 90-day tariff pause and the drop in U.S. inflation have provided a temporary boost, but the market is far from stable. Short-term holders are feeling the pressure, and the risk of capitulation is real.

Bitcoin’s price could experience a significant retracement if it fails to reclaim the $93,000 level. This would put additional strain on short-term holders and could trigger a wave of forced liquidations. Conversely, if Bitcoin manages to break through key resistance levels and regain momentum, it could signal the beginning of a sustained bull run.

Ultimately, the next few weeks will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s fate. As the cryptocurrency continues to navigate macroeconomic uncertainty, investors will be closely watching for signs of capitulation or a breakout above key resistance levels. Whether Bitcoin can ignite its longest green run yet will depend on how well it can navigate these challenges in the coming months.