Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a recent downturn that has shifted market sentiment, raising concerns about its future price movements. While many traders remain optimistic about a potential rebound, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has issued a cautionary warning, predicting that Bitcoin’s bull cycle may be over. According to Ju, the market could experience 6 to 12 months of bearish or sideways movement, as liquidity weakens and whales begin to sell off their holdings.

Ki Young Ju’s Warning

In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Ki Young Ju expressed his shift in market outlook, stating, “#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action.” His warning has garnered attention due to his previous confidence in Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory. Ju, known for his on-chain analysis, has typically dismissed bearish predictions in the past, but recent data seems to have changed his stance.

Ju’s analysis draws on several key on-chain metrics, such as the Profit and Loss (PnL) Index, which signals cyclical trends in Bitcoin’s price movements. According to Ju, the current market environment suggests that the bullish expectations for a strong rebound may be misplaced. Liquidity inflows are weakening, and newly emerged whales are reportedly offloading their Bitcoin holdings at lower prices, which Ju interprets as a bearish signal.

Declining Liquidity and Whale Behavior

One of the most concerning factors behind Ju’s prediction is the decline in fresh liquidity entering the market. Liquidity is a critical factor in the stability and growth of any asset, especially a volatile one like Bitcoin. Without consistent liquidity inflows, Bitcoin’s price may struggle to regain upward momentum. Ju noted that the absence of new liquidity is a significant warning sign, as it reduces buying pressure and limits Bitcoin’s ability to recover.

In addition to this, Ju highlighted the behavior of new whales in the market. Whales, or large institutional investors, have historically played a crucial role in driving Bitcoin’s price. However, the recent trend shows that these whales are beginning to sell off their holdings at lower prices. This behavior is typically seen at the onset of bearish trends, further reinforcing Ju’s bearish outlook for Bitcoin.

Another worrying trend Ju pointed to is the negative ETF inflows. Over the past three weeks, Bitcoin ETFs have seen sustained outflows, indicating waning institutional demand. ETFs are a popular investment vehicle for institutions, and their withdrawal of funds from the market suggests a decline in buying pressure. This lack of institutional interest could further weaken Bitcoin’s chances of a short-term recovery.

Historical Trends and Potential for a Rebound

Despite Ju’s bearish outlook, some traders and analysts remain hopeful about Bitcoin’s future. Historical data on Bitcoin’s price movements reveals a seasonal growth pattern, with the strongest gains typically occurring between April and October. If this trend continues, Bitcoin may stabilize in the coming months before experiencing another major rally.

Some projections even suggest that Bitcoin could surpass its previous all-time high by mid-2025. While Ju’s warning of a bearish phase is grounded in data, long-term indicators could point to significant upside potential for Bitcoin in the future. The cryptocurrency’s ability to thrive during periods of economic uncertainty, along with its increasing adoption among institutional investors, could fuel another bull run in the coming months.

Conclusion

Ki Young Ju’s warning of a 6–12 month bearish phase for Bitcoin has shaken market sentiment, with concerns growing about the weakening liquidity and the sell-off by large investors. While the short-term outlook may seem bleak, historical trends suggest that Bitcoin could stabilize and potentially embark on another upward trajectory in the coming months. Whether Ju’s prediction of a bear market materializes or if Bitcoin can defy expectations and reignite its bull cycle remains to be seen, but the coming months will likely be critical for the flagship cryptocurrency’s future.