The cryptocurrency market is facing a potentially volatile moment as over $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire this Good Friday, April 18, 2025. Coming at a time when many global markets are closed for the holiday, the event is drawing attention from traders and analysts who are watching for signs of possible price swings.

According to data from Deribit, a leading crypto derivatives exchange, approximately 23,221 Bitcoin options contracts, with a combined value of around $1.97 billion, are reaching expiration. At the same time, roughly 177,130 Ethereum options contracts are also set to expire, representing a notional value of nearly $280 million. Combined, this brings the total options expiry to more than $2.2 billion, making it one of the most significant events of the month.

Prices Near Max Pain Levels May Influence Market Behavior

One key concept that traders monitor during these expiries is known as the “max pain” price—the level at which option holders would suffer the greatest collective loss. For Bitcoin, the current max pain level is $82,000, while for Ethereum, it’s around $1,600. Market behavior often gravitates toward these levels as expiry approaches, driven by positioning and hedging activity. As of Friday morning, Bitcoin is trading just above that level at approximately $84,648, leading to speculation that the price could drift downward in the short term.

Market Sentiment Suggests Optimism, But Caution Remains

Despite the looming expiry, some market indicators are showing signs of cautious optimism. The put-to-call ratio—a measure of whether traders are leaning bearish or bullish—is currently under 1 for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. This suggests more investors are buying calls, anticipating price increases. For Bitcoin, the ratio stands at 0.96, and for Ethereum, it’s slightly lower at 0.84. However, experts warn that a calm surface can be misleading, especially in the crypto space. Volatility in the market appears to be suppressed, and some analysts believe this could be the calm before a larger move.

Analysts Warn of a Black Swan Scenario

Experts from Greeks.live, a derivatives analytics platform, have raised concerns that the current market sentiment is more fragile than it seems. They describe the mood as bearish to neutral, with signs that bullish enthusiasm has faded. In such environments, the risk of a rare and disruptive “black swan” event increases. These events are characterized by sudden, unexpected developments that can cause sharp and often painful market movements. Analysts are advising traders to consider protective strategies, such as purchasing out-of-the-money put options to guard against sudden downturns.

Macroeconomic Tensions Add to Uncertainty

In the background, broader macroeconomic conditions are adding further pressure to the crypto market. Former U.S. President Donald Trump continues to urge the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell has resisted, signaling a more cautious stance. Powell’s firm position has led investors to scale back expectations for aggressive rate cuts, which has in turn affected risk assets like cryptocurrencies. This has also increased the correlation between crypto and traditional financial markets, making digital assets more sensitive to economic developments.

Conclusion

As over $2.2 billion in options contracts expire today, the potential for post-expiry volatility is high. While some market signals suggest optimism, underlying bearish sentiment and macroeconomic uncertainty have created an unpredictable environment. Whether the market moves sharply or remains steady, traders would be wise to remain alert as the dust settles following this major expiry event.